UK’s Sunak faces huge test on May 2

WHEN Rishi Sunak became UK prime minister in 2022, one bit of conventional wisdom was that he would help stabilise the flailing government, even if the ruling Conservatives were turfed out of office at the general election. However, next month could bring about another period of political meltdown with a possible third change of PM in the same parliament.

The trigger point for this possible next phase of political turmoil could come with the May 2 local elections. In last year’s equivalent ballots, the Conservatives for the first time in over two decades lost the mantle as the biggest party in English Councils, and this rout looks likely to continue next month.

If the Conservatives lose big, it will only intensify the political pressure on the prime minister’s position. This could spark a leadership challenge within his party.

Under present Conservative rules, such a challenge could be triggered if only 15 per cent of Conservative MPs write in to express lack of confidence in Sunak’s leadership. At that point, there would then be a secret ballot of those legislators, with only a simple majority needed for victory on either side.

If Sunak loses, a leadership election would begin in which he cannot stand. However, if he wins, he will lead the party into the general election as another internal Conservative contest cannot be triggered for another year.

The most recent Conservative no-confidence vote came in 2022. Although Boris Johnson won the contest with almost 60 per cent support from his party’s MPs, he was badly wounded nonetheless, and ultimately forced to resign as prime minister weeks later.

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A much less likely, but still plausible, scenario is that Sunak faces a House of Commons no-confidence vote. To govern, a prime minister has to have the confidence of the majority of the House – which should be the case given the significant Conservative majority.

To test this proposition, a motion of confidence could be moved by the opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer to be voted on by all MPs, regardless of which party they represent. No-confidence motions can be on key pieces of legislation which the government regards as so important that it will stand or fall on them.

The last time a government was defeated this way was some four and a half decades ago in 1979. The then-Labour government under Prime Minister Jim Callaghan lost a confidence vote which led to a general election being called, leading to Margaret Thatcher’s premiership.

It is in this troubled context that Sunak, often politically cautious, may decide to chance his arm and call a summer election for June or July.

There has been some speculation that King Charles, who constitutionally has to give permission to the prime minister to dissolve parliament, might refuse.

The king could, in theory, do so if there is another party leader, another party or a coalition of parties that is ready and able to govern. However, since parliament is approaching the end of the five-year limit, it is improbable he would block an election.

One variant of these scenarios is that Sunak simply decides he has had enough and quits. While this is unlikely too, 2022 saw two such prime ministerial resignations – from Johnson and also Liz Truss amid the controversy over her mini-Budget.

The reason why a resignation, allowing another Conservative to become prime minister, cannot be entirely ruled out is Sunak’s present political exasperation. Since he assumed office, he has made numerous strategic reboots, thousands of policy announcements, but nothing has fundamentally changed the UK’s political weather.

In part, this is because the intellectual climate is shifting towards Labour with many voters increasingly recognising the poor state of public services, and that further investment is needed in them. Many think tanks have particularly highlighted the challenges facing the health service.

According to the most recent forecasts by Electoral Calculus, based on the latest opinion surveys, the probability of a Labour majority is 96 per cent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Labour being the largest party is 99 per cent. While polls may tighten in the coming weeks, the direction of travel appears clear.

Almost a decade and a half since the Conservatives first took power in 2010, and five prime ministers later via David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Sunak, the party looks increasingly tired and divided. In recent years, there has been a massive amount of churn within senior ministerial echelons.

The independent Institute for Government think tank said this ministerial turnover is “very damaging” and meant that ministers focused on “quick wins” rather than long-term policymaking. Since 2015 alone, the four so-called “great offices of state” (prime minister, chancellor of the exchequer, home secretary and foreign secretary) have been occupied by 26 people.

In part, this is why Sunak has shown some signs of wanting to defer the general election date until after the summer, with the latest he can legally hold it being January 2025, hoping that the nation’s economic fortunes will improve. Sunak has pledged to see inflation halve from 10.1 per cent in January 2023. However, the Bank of England’s target is actually 2 per cent, and he hopes that inflation might fall below that for several months.

History shows that Sunak and other recent “tail-end” prime ministers (beleaguered politicians who come into office at the end of a long period of rule by their parties) tend to want to put off big ballots as long as possible. This was true of previous Conservative prime ministers Alec Douglas-Home and John Major who called the ballots in 1964 and 1997 respectively, very close to the last possible legal date.

Despite the huge diversity of tail-end premiers in backgrounds, beliefs and styles, a common pattern is that – despite their various talents – they ultimately prove unable to stop the flow of the political tide against them. After multiple years in office, there is growing momentum for the opposition party, which eventually proves insurmountable.

The fact that Sunak’s attempt to win a fifth straight term for the Conservatives would defy political history is also shown in the growing numbers of the party’s MPs announcing their retirement from politics. This number is well over 65, at the time of writing.

So it appears unlikely that the UK government will be able to regain sustained, significant political momentum. As May 2 approaches, Sunak’s prime ministership is perilously positioned and the political winds are blowing hard against the Conservatives winning another electoral majority.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics