The chilling echoes of 1914, a century on

A RERUN of 1914's descent into global war is really rather unlikely. But some of the danger of a hundred years ago is present today.

The years before 1914 saw the formation of trade blocs separated by high tariff barriers. Back then, the world was dominated by several roughly equivalent powers, albeit with different strengths and weaknesses. Today, the world is similarly multi-polar. The United States is in a position of clear leadership, but China is coming up fast. Europe is weaker than it was, but is still a force to be reckoned with. Japan, Russia, Brazil, India are also too powerful to ignore.

A hundred years ago, big international infrastructure projects such as the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, and before it the Suez Canal, were built to protect favoured trading. Today's equivalent may be the bilateral mining partnerships forged between, for instance, China and mineral- rich African states.