Chinese government to speed bond sales to stimulate growth
It will probably raise at least 2.2 trillion yuan over November and December
[BEIJING] China’s central and local governments will probably raise at least a net 2.2 trillion yuan (US$330 billion) in bond sales in the final two months of the year, the second-highest amount on record for the period, as the authorities step up efforts to support growth.
The amount, estimated by China Chengxin International Credit Rating and Industrial Securities, will be only behind the stimulus splurge in 2024.
It will add to the 11.15 trillion yuan raised in net financing so far this year as at Oct 23, Bloomberg calculations based on ChinaBond data showed.
The borrowing push would give Beijing more fiscal firepower to shore up the economy until the year-end, helping offset challenges from sluggish consumption, a weak job market and a slump in infrastructure investment.
The People’s Bank of China will maintain ample liquidity to support these bond sales, said analysts.
Yuan Haixia, executive director of the research institute at China Chengxin International Credit Rating, said: “The amount of local government bonds yet to be issued in the fourth quarter has increased significantly.
“With bond issuance accelerating and fiscal support strengthening, the contraction in infrastructure investment is expected to gradually narrow.”
The Chinese bond market has been booming on expectations that borrowing costs will fall further to support economic growth.
Demand at recent bond issuance was robust, driving the auction yields to a record low in an onshore sale last week. The 10-year yield is trading at around 1.62 per cent, near an all-time low.
The Ministry of Finance said last week that 550 billion yuan in remaining quotas for local governments’ debt earmarked for project construction will be fully issued and utilised by year-end. It also said the issuance of new bonds has steadily accelerated.
The anticipated pickup in bond sales in the coming weeks, combined with institutional buying, may trigger short-term disruptions to interbank liquidity. But “the PBOC is likely to use open-market operations to smooth fluctuations”, Yuan said.
The PBOC added liquidity on a net basis for a sixth straight session on Wednesday (Oct 28), data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
In a note, Industrial Securities analysts led by Liu Yu anticipated that November may mark the peak for new government bond supply, driven by seasonal factors.
“The actual issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter may have relatively big difference from the planned issuance,” they wrote.
“There may be unexpected adjustments to domestic policies, and the fundamentals may recover more quickly than expected.” BLOOMBERG
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