Copper hits record US$13,000 on tariff concerns

[LONDON] Copper touched US$13,000 a ton for the first time, extending last year’s scorching rally as mine outages and trade dislocations fuel concerns over supplies of the key industrial metal. 

Benchmark futures rallied as much as 4.3 per cent in London. A strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile was just the latest supply disruption at a time of expanding global demand for the metal used in everything from data centres to car batteries. 

At the same time, the threat of US import tariffs on the metal has led traders to ramp up shipments to American shores in recent weeks, reducing supplies elsewhere. 

Copper, a metal that’s vital for the energy transition, surged 42 per cent in 2025 for the best annual gain since 2009. A deadly accident at the world’s second-largest copper mine in Indonesia and an underground flood in the Democratic Republic of Congo were some of the supply disruptions that propelled prices to successive records. 

President Donald Trump’s plan to revisit the question of tariffs on primary copper in 2026, meanwhile, has revived the arbitrage trade that rocked the market earlier last year. 

“We estimate the global refined copper market was in surplus in 2025, but metal/inventory flows were distorted by US tariffs that resulted in a material lift in US imports,” UBS Group AG analysts, including Daniel Major, wrote in a note Monday. 

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The US holds roughly half of global inventories, but only accounts for less than 10 per cent of global demand, according to UBS. That means there is a risk of lower supplies elsewhere. The cash-to-three month spread in London remains firmly in backwardation, a pattern that points to near-term tightness.

“Overall supply shortfalls, coupled with regional dislocation caused by US tariffs, are propelling copper,” China Securities analysts led by Wang Jiechao wrote in a note. The global copper market will see a shortage of more than 100,000 tons in 2026,” they said.

Three-month copper rose 4 per cent to US$12,963.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 2.13 pm local time. BLOOMBERG