Gold falls as traders weigh Fed rate path and Hormuz attacks

[LONDON] Gold extended a pullback from a two-week high, as traders weighed the outlook for US interest rates and renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bullion fell as much as 1.2 per cent to below US$4,120 an ounce. The focus for the gold market has remained on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook in recent weeks, with gold trading in line with the likelihood of rate hikes. Higher borrowing costs are a negative for the metal, which doesn’t pay interest.

Later this week the US central bank will release the much-anticipated minutes of its June meeting. Gold slumped after that meeting, as new Fed chair Kevin Warsh leaned more hawkish than markets had expected. Bets on a rate hike have eased since then, with gold and silver recovering last week after weaker-than-expected jobs data.

“On balance, the market is taking a slightly more cautious view about the prospect for US rate hikes,” Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX Group, said in a note. “This has helped give hard assets some support.”

Elsewhere, fresh attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz highlighted continued risks to vessels there. A laden liquefied natural gas tanker was hit by a projectile near Oman as it exited the chokepoint. Axios said Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the strait. Oil rose.

Bullion is down by more than a fifth since the Iran war started, as higher energy prices fuelled bets on inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.

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Light bargain-hunting has lifted gold back above the 10-day moving average, with technical indicators “suggesting some upside scope,” O’Connell said. “It has found some resistance at US$4,180 and is resting on technical support above US$4,130,” she added.

Spot gold fell 0.7 per cent to US$4,135.13 an ounce by 11.59 am in London. Silver slid 2 per cent to US$60.80 an ounce. Platinum and palladium both gained, while the Bloomberg US dollar Spot Index was steady. BLOOMBERG