Oil declines from six-month high as traders assess Mideast risks

[TOKYO] Oil retreated as the US and Iran stuck to familiar rhetoric in their conflict and a technical gauge pointed to overbought conditions.

Brent fell below US$115 a barrel after surging to a six-month high last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near US$101.

US President Donald Trump told Fox News that it is “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Teheran or “finish it off”.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said “they will not attempt” an attack if rationality existed, referring to the US.

On the technical front, Brent’s 14-day relative-strength index – a measure of the pace and magnitude of price movements – topped 74 on Friday (Oct 23). That is above the level of 70 that some traders see as signalling a pullback.

Brent has still surged almost 90 per cent in 2026 so far as the war in the Middle East disrupted flows and drew in Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Saudi Arabia.

Investors are braced for several major events that could move markets, with Israeli elections due on Tuesday, followed by the US midterms in early November. Between the two, the US Federal Reserve sets monetary policy.

In recent days, Washington ordered a wider evacuation of diplomatic personnel from across the Middle East, while Trump has hinted his forces could resume strikes after the US midterms on Nov 3.

For its part, Iran is preparing to retaliate, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, according to a person familiar with the Islamic Republic’s thinking.

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At the weekend, there was further fighting between Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, ratcheting up risks to energy flows.

The rebel group claimed that they targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in response to Saturday’s Saudi attacks in Sanaa and other areas in Yemen.

“The rise in fighting in the region, combined with the worries that escalation is around the corner, mean that oil markets need to price in the risk of oil and refined-product inventory depletion,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

“We see Brent oil futures needing to rise as high as US$150 a barrel to compel uncontrolled demand destruction, where high prices force lower demand, in emerging Asian economies.”

At present, crude shipments from the Middle East have recovered to near pre-war levels, including through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian attacks on vessels. The narrow waterway links the Persian Gulf to global markets, and has been at the centre of the conflict.

More than 1.5 billion barrels of crude have passed through Hormuz with American assistance “since summer”, according to US Central Command, which oversees Washington’s military operations in the region.

Its forces have both imposed a full blockade of Iranian ports to choke its shipments, while assisting passages for other Persian Gulf producers’ vessels.

“The market is pricing in some risk of escalation after the US midterm elections, when Washington may feel less constrained by the immediate political cost of higher oil prices,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “That risk could keep prices elevated even if flows improve.”

The US and Israel began the war with an attack in late February, with the stated aim of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who has been endorsed in the election by Trump – said in a campaign video released on Saturday Teheran was renewing the programme. BLOOMBERG