This SGX-listed stock is up over 400% this year on the gold rush. Where will it go from here?
While CNMC Goldmine could fall back down in the near term, it may soar to S$1.78 by Q2 2026
[SINGAPORE] At the turn of the year, one share of CNMC Goldmine was worth S$0.25. Just over 10 months in, it has surged more than 400 per cent to S$1.28.
Its fortunes have shined as investors flocked to gold as a safe haven amid geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty. The price of the precious metal crossed the mythical US$4,000 barrier on Oct 8, and hit a new high of US$4,186.25 an ounce on Wednesday (Oct 15). In the year to date, it has notched a remarkable return of 58.5 per cent.
By 2028, gold prices could soar even higher to US$10,000 an ounce, said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in an Oct 13 note.
The yellow metal’s latest surge was caused by the most recent round of US-China trade tensions, as investors continued to seek refuge and further American interest-rate cuts spurred demand.
Many have also become suspicious of sky-high stock market valuations, as a recent Bloomberg report showed that players like OpenAI and Nvidia have created a US$1 trillion artificial intelligence market through circular deals. Against this backdrop, gold has emerged as a favoured alternative.
Singapore-based players such as CNMC Goldmine, which in 2011 became the first gold producer listed on the Catalist board, have also enjoyed the benefits. Investors have piled into the company, which primarily explores, mines and processes gold with a focus on its Sokor Gold Field Project in the state of Kelantan, Malaysia.
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Analysts see its shares continuing to rise with gold prices. Chan En Jie of Lim & Tan Securities said that its “direct exposure” to the commodity’s rising spot price led to the surge in its valuation this year.
The analyst added that CNMC Goldmine “exhibits operating leverage” – its profits have grown faster than its revenue as gold prices climbed. “Any incremental increase in gold prices should provide a proportionately larger boost in earnings,” he said.
In June, the World Gold Council released data showing about 95 per cent of central banks expected to continue increasing their gold holdings in the following year as they reduced their US dollar reserves.
Earlier this month, Standard Chartered Bank upgraded gold to “overweight” within its multi-asset portfolios. The lender’s chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe, Manpreet Gill, said that central bank reserve diversification demand has further to run.
CNMC also completed its carbon-in-leach plant expansion in April, nearly doubling its daily processing capacity from 500 tonnes to 800 tonnes. That gives the company a further boost, noted Chan.
But not all that glitters is gold, even for CNMC.
CGS International Securities analyst Chua Wei Ren believes that the stock may run into “exhaustion” in the short term due to its “strong parabolic extension”, but could settle in the range of S$1.03 to S$1.11. A parabolic extension often implies that a stock’s rally is overextended.
“Despite the near-term potential weakness, CNMC’s upside is still valid over the longer term” and the share price may reach S$1.78 by the second quarter of 2026, he said.
SAC Capital said in a Sep 3 note that it expects CNMC’s earnings per share to stand at S$0.103 for 2025, and S$0.12 for 2026. It also set a target price of S$1.13 for the stock, and projected a dividend yield of 3.8 per cent.
Lim & Tan’s Chan warned that the company is also exposed to the downside risk of gold prices and “more selling pressure” from its directors, noting that their last personal sale occured on Sep 16 at a price of S$0.9855 a share.
Gold’s surge has also spawned rallies in metals such as silver, which reached a record US$53.55 an ounce on Oct 13 and is up about 83 per cent in the year to date.
Platinum and palladium have posted returns of about 83 per cent and 62 per cent, respectively, this year. Safe-haven demand for the precious metals has also been driven by threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence and the US government shutdown.
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