Thailand stares at 1.6% growth in 2026 as reform calls mount ahead of polls

[BANGKOK] Thailand heads into its Feb 8 election with an unenviable distinction. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the economy to expand just 1.6 per cent in 2026, making it the slowest-growing major economy in South-east Asia outside crisis-hit Myanmar, and among the laggards in Asia. 

For many economists and business groups, the downshift is not a one-off but the latest chapter in a two-decade pattern of shocks – the 2008 global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic pains – and policy drift, compounded by repeated political resets (more than 10 prime ministers in 20 years).

Long-delayed push

With growth struggling to break out of the 2 per cent range, pressure is building for a long-delayed push on structural fixes from slashing red tape and opening up services, to sharpening tax incentives for digital talent and upgrading skills for an artificial intelligence (AI) economy.