Vietnam 2026 GDP seen at 7.3%, CPI at 4.8%: Bloomberg survey

[HONG KONG] Economists raised their forecasts for Vietnam’s 2026 economic growth and inflation, anticipating that strong electronics demand and foreign investment will sustain momentum. 

The median estimate for 2026 gross domestic product in a Bloomberg survey was lifted to 7.3 per cent, while the inflation forecast was increased to 4.8 per cent from 4.3 per cent.

The median forecast for the central bank’s policy rate at the end of 2026 was unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The survey was conducted until Wednesday (Jul 8) and started from Jul 3.

The upgrades follow stronger economic growth heading into the second half of 2026, with GDP expansion reaching 8.39 per cent year on year (yoy) in Q2, up from 7.94 per cent in Q1.

The industry and construction sector led the acceleration with 9.81 per cent year to date growth yoy, driven by electronics manufacturing and capital investment, prompting some economists to upgrade their full-year growth forecast to 8 per cent.

“We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8 per cent as we see primary growth drivers, such as export-oriented manufacturing underpinned by electronics momentum, robust foreign direct investment (FDI) and resilient domestic demand, sustaining over the coming months,” Han Teng Chua, senior economist at DBS said.

Chua also said easing US-Iran tensions and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had reduced risks of higher input costs, supply chain disruptions and weaker external demand.

FDI remained a key driver of growth, with disbursed FDI rising 11.2 per cent yoy to US$13.03 billion in the first half of 2026 while pledged FDI surged 61 per cent yoy to US$34.65 billion.

Higher imports of semiconductor components and capital goods contributed to a record trade deficit that widened to US$5.21 billion in May. 

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The State Bank of Vietnam faces the challenge of supporting growth while containing inflation. Bank credit growth reached 7.41 per cent by late June, against a 15 per cent full-year target.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to 5.6 per cent in May, above the central bank’s 5.5 per cent forecast, before easing to 4.69 per cent in June.

Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha has emphasised the need to support lending to the manufacturing sector while managing inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices.

The central bank has also pledged to intervene in currency markets to stabilise the dong amid external pressures. BLOOMBERG