Australia’s central bank warns rate hikes might not be over after holding fire

[SYDNEY] Australia’s central bank held its cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday (Jun 16), saying the economy was slowing in the face of tighter financial conditions but warned it might yet hike again if needed to control inflation.

Wrapping up its June policy meeting after pausing for the first time this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that inflation was still too high and it would do whatever necessary to bring it down, “including increasing the cash rate target further if required”.

Markets had wagered on a steady outcome following a run of softer domestic data on inflation, consumer demand and employment, while a peace deal in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had pulled down oil prices and lessened inflation risks.

“Resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is at an early stage, and there are plausible scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than envisaged under the May baseline forecasts,” said the board in a statement.

“Global oil supply issues will take some time to resolve, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation.”

The unanimous decision was largely as expected. The Australian dollar held onto earlier losses and was down 0.3 per cent at US$0.7050, while three-year government bond yields edged up two basis points to 4.457 per cent.

Swaps imply around a 30 per cent chance of a move in August, and just a total tightening of 16 basis points for the year, equivalent to less than one rate hike.

“Today’s decision reflects a central bank looking through a very cloudy outlook before deciding whether future meetings require more tightening, or simply more time,” said Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics.

He said that the Iran deal will not reassure markets until it is signed, implemented and reflected in fuel prices.

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The RBA has already raised rates by 75 basis points since February as it struggled to contain stubborn inflationary pressures in the face of surging energy costs. Annual inflation slowed to 4.2 per cent in April but a measure of underlying inflation picked up to 3.4 per cent, above the target band of 2 to 3 per cent.

“The inflationary impulse from the nearly four-month oil price shock cannot simply be put back in the bottle,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research for Oxford Economics Australia.

“Much of the CPI hit from higher input, shipping and agricultural costs is still working its way through to consumer prices, meaning underlying inflation pressures will not dissipate immediately,” he added, cautioning against rate cuts “anytime soon”.

With interest rates now matching their post-pandemic highs, the economy slowed to a crawl in the first quarter, growing just 0.3 per cent at a quarterly pace as consumers tightened their purse strings. The unemployment rate also hit a 4½ year high of 4.5 per cent.

A record run in house prices has ground to a halt, with the government’s proposed tax changes driving a sharp drop in demand for new investor loans.

The RBA charted a softer course than its global peers during the post-pandemic inflation surge, prioritising hard-won gains in the labour market over rapid tightening.

Interest rates peaked at 4.35 per cent early last year before three cuts pulled them back to 3.6 per cent, but that strategy backfired as inflation reared its head again. REUTERS