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With Fed likely to stand pat on rates, all eyes are on its ‘dot plot’ for fresh clues on outlook

Some Fed officials consider putting rate increases back on the table, just to make sure the central bank has not prematurely declared victory over inflation

    • US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell (left) with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at a meeting in Washington, DC in May. Powell is due to give a press conference on Thursday (Singapore time) after the Fed's next policy meeting.
    • US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell (left) with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at a meeting in Washington, DC in May. Powell is due to give a press conference on Thursday (Singapore time) after the Fed's next policy meeting. PHOTO: AFP
    Published Tue, Jun 11, 2024 · 05:56 PM

    THE biggest news surrounding the US economy this week will likely not be the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, but rather the consumer price inflation data that precedes it or the press conference that follows it.

    It’s almost certain that the US central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the seventh successive meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (Jun 12), at the multi-year high of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent. It’s also unlikely that the Fed will change much of the language in its statement.

    The unpredictable part of the six-weekly ritual this time, however, is likely to be the “dot plot”, where central bankers pencil in their expectations for rate changes in the coming year.

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