Humanoid robots to power next leg of China’s export dominance

[SYDNEY] China’s early lead in humanoid robots will help power the next phase of its global manufacturing and export dominance, according to new research from Morgan Stanley.

Much like the early identification of electric vehicles as a growth driver a decade ago, China’s investments and early lead in humanoid robotics will see the nation’s share of global manufacturing expand to 16.5 per cent by 2030, from 15 per cent today, economists led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a report.

Over the past couple of years, robotics has shifted from the lab to the real world, with Chinese tech parks, factories and universities among those deploying humanoids. Government procurement is also kicking in, the Morgan Stanley economists note, paving the way for broader adoption.

“China has a track record of spotting the next big growth areas early and planning ahead,” Ahya, the bank’s chief Asia economist, wrote in the report, citing China’s now-dominant EV and battery industries. “The robotics industry has followed a similar path.”

Like with EVs, China is building out capacity across the humanoid supply chain. That gives it an edge over competitors, including the US, Japan and South Korea, which often rely on Chinese inputs and components.

Almost every week, Chinese media reports on the next leap forward in humanoid robotics. A red humanoid recently completed a half-marathon in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, about seven minutes faster than the men’s world record. Robotics shares jumped on that news.

SEE ALSO

Chinese consumers open wallets as malaise lifted during holidays

China services activity grows at faster rate in April: private PMI

China’s regional slowdown: Painful but necessary?

China’s factory activity expands despite pressures from Iran war

More

DECODING ASIA

Navigate Asia in
a new global order

Get the insights delivered to your inbox.

With American firms such as Tesla also investing heavily, the race to dominate the humanoid robot market is part of the broader strategic competition between the world’s two largest economies.

The US approach has been to focus on high-cost and high-spec prototypes, with an emphasis on testing before scaling up production, the Morgan Stanley economists wrote. Chinese firms have been quicker to roll out models, with the local market acting as a testing ground.

Protectionism will be a threat. Chinese EVs have run into tariffs and other restrictions around the world. While humanoid robotics is a new industry, meaning there’s less need to protect existing producers and workers, concerns over security and technical dependence could rise, according to the economists. BLOOMBERG