US, Iran no closer to ending war as Qatari tanker sails towards Strait of Hormuz

[WASHINGTON/CAIRO] A state of relative calm prevailed around the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday (May 9), after days of sporadic flare-ups, as the US waited for Iran’s response to its latest proposals to end more than two months of fighting and begin peace talks.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that Washington expected a response within hours. But a day later, there was no sign of movement from Teheran on the proposal, which would formally end the war before talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Rubio met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in Miami on Saturday and discussed the need to continue working together “to deter threats and promote stability and security across the Middle East,” US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement.

The statement did not specifically mention Iran.

A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker was sailing toward the strait on Saturday en route to Pakistan, according to LSEG shipping data, in a move sources said was approved by Iran to build confidence with Qatar and Pakistan, both mediators in the war.

If completed, it would mark the first transit of a Qatari LNG vessel through the strait since the conflict started.

Data from global ship-tracking firm MarineTraffic indicates that at least six cargo ships have crossed Hormuz since Wednesday, but no tankers. Tracking by the London Stock Exchange Group shows that the number of ships passing through the narrows each day has decreased since Monday, from an already low level.

Those intelligence firms may provide an incomplete picture, however, because vessels sometimes fake or shut off their location signals. Still, the data they have collected generally shows how traffic has plunged in recent days, even relative to some other periods during the ceasefire, which started Apr 7.

With US President Donald Trump due to begin a visit to China this week, there has been mounting pressure to draw a line under the war, which has thrown energy markets into turmoil and posed a growing threat to the world economy.

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Recent days have seen the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the strait since a ceasefire began a month ago, and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack on Friday.

Clashes test ceasefire

Teheran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait since the war began with US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on Feb 28. Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed through the narrow waterway.

On Friday, there were sporadic clashes between Iranian forces and US vessels in the strait, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported. The Tasnim news agency later cited an Iranian military source saying the situation had calmed but warning more clashes were possible.

The US military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with a US fighter jet hitting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back.

The US imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels in April. But a CIA assessment indicated Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a US blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, according to a US official familiar with the matter, raising questions about Trump’s leverage over Teheran in a conflict that has been unpopular with voters and US allies.

A senior intelligence official characterised as false the “claims” about the CIA analysis, which was first reported by the Washington Post.

Clashes extended beyond the waterway. The UAE said its air defences engaged with two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, with three people sustaining moderate injuries.

Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host US military bases. In what the UAE called a major escalation, Iran stepped up attacks this week in response to Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom” to escort ships in the strait, which he paused after 48 hours.

Trump said on Thursday the ceasefire, announced on Apr 7, was holding despite the flare-ups, while Iran accused the US of breaching it.

“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi said on Friday.

US pursues diplomacy, steps up sanctions

The US has found little international support in the conflict. After meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why Italy and other allies were not backing Washington’s efforts to reopen the strait, warning of a dangerous precedent if Teheran were allowed to control an international waterway.

Speaking in Stockholm, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said European countries shared the aim of stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons and said they were working to bridge differences with Washington.

Britain, which has been working with France on a proposal to ensure safe transit through the strait once the situation stabilises, said on Saturday it was deploying a warship to the Middle East in ​preparation for such a multinational mission.

While pursuing diplomacy, the US also ratcheted up sanctions to pressure Iran.

Days before Trump travels to China to meet President Xi Jinping, the US Treasury on Friday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding efforts by Iran’s military to secure weapons and raw materials used to build Tehran’s Shahed drones. REUTERS, NYTIMES