What is the Thucydides trap and why did Xi raise it with Trump?
The term, popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, draws on ancient Greek historian Thucydides
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WHEN President Xi Jinping met US leader Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, he posed a big question: Can China and the US avoid the “Thucydides Trap”? It’s a phrase that sounds academic, but it goes to the heart of Beijing’s ambitions for their relationship.
The term was popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.
His argument: when a rising power challenges an established one, conflict inevitably follows. Allison’s research found this pattern played out repeatedly across history and he used this framing as a lens to examine the US-China rivalry.
In simple terms, it’s about structural tension. China’s rise — economically, technologically and militarily — challenges America’s long-standing dominance as a world superpower. Even if neither side seeks confrontation, the risk is that competition itself creates pressure that’s hard to control.
Xi’s use of the concept dates to at least 2014, according to Zichen Wang, a Beijing-based analyst, who researched the leader’s past references to this framework.
Xi more recently used the term in a meeting with President Joe Biden in November 2024 on the sidelines of the Apec gathering in Peru.
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The Chinese leader’s message has been consistent: conflict isn’t inevitable. China’s framing is that the two sides should find a way to co-exist, often described by Beijing as “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation.”
Some in Washington are more cautious about using the term with US policymakers tending instead to emphasise guardrails and risk management.
There’s also a strategic angle. By invoking the concept, Beijing elevates US-China tensions beyond trade disputes or Taiwan into something bigger — a defining test of how major powers interact.
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It also reinforces China’s position as a superpower peer to the US, rather than a subordinate. As Xi asked Trump, can China and the US “create a new paradigm of major country relations?” BLOOMBERG
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