Inflation remains elevated as energy costs push on prices

[WASHINGTON] The stubborn US inflation problem did not get any worse in July. It did not get any better, either.

Consumer prices were up 3.7 per cent in July from a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure price index. That was the same rate as in June and still well above the Fed’s target of 2 per cent annual inflation.

Core prices, a measure that strips out the volatile food and energy categories, were up 3.3 per cent from a year earlier, also unchanged from June. Policymakers often focus on the core measure because it can give a more reliable indication of how inflation will behave in the months ahead.

On a monthly basis, overall prices were up 0.2 per cent in July, reversing a slight decline in prices in June. Core prices also rose 0.2 per cent.

The data, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday (Aug 26), highlighted the tricky position Fed policymakers face as they weigh whether to raise interest rates at their meeting next month.

Inflation jumped this spring after President Donald Trump led the United States into war with Iran, which pushed up energy prices around the world. It has eased somewhat since then, and there have been few signs that higher oil prices are filtering through to the economy more broadly, apart from some isolated categories such as airfares.

That has led some policymakers to conclude they can afford to wait to raise rates, at least as long as inflation does not pick up again.

Other officials, however, argue that the inflation problem is not isolated to energy prices. The boom in artificial intelligence is driving up prices for computer chips, while a renewed trade war with Canada threatens to lead to higher costs for imported goods. And they say that after five years of elevated inflation, the central bank needs to act decisively or risk losing their credibility.

Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair, has resisted laying out his own criteria for when to raise rates, saying only that he is committed to bringing inflation back to the 2 per cent target. He will have another chance to explain his thinking on Friday, when he delivers a speech at the Fed’s annual conference in Wyoming.

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Policymakers will get another inflation report before their meeting next month as well as updates on the state of the labor market.

For many families, however, the situation is less complicated. Consumers are paying higher prices for essentials, particularly gas, while wage growth has stagnated. That is putting stress on household budgets. Consumer confidence fell in August for the second month in a row, The Conference Board said Tuesday.

“It’s hard to ignore the reality of those higher prices,” said Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “People are feeling the pinch of it.” NYTIMES