US weekly jobless claims decline as labour market remains stable

[WASHINGTON] The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labour market conditions remained stable, though employers are cautious about hiring new workers as the conflict in the Middle East casts a shadow over the economy.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday (Apr 16). Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.

Claims remained in their 201,000-230,000 range for this year. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from the US-Israel war with Iran could be hindering hiring.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday showed “several districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires.” The report based on information collected in early April also noted the Middle East conflict “was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.”

Oil prices have soared more than 35 per cent since the war started at the end of February. Higher oil prices raised consumer and producer prices in March, government data showed recently. President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, halting seaborne trade in and out of Iran.

The labour market was already in a holding pattern prior to the war, blamed by economists on uncertainty stemming from Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. The Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses, economists said.

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The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.818 million during the week ended April 4, the claims report showed.

The so-called continuing claims have dropped from last year’s lofty levels likely in part due to people exhausting their eligibility for benefits, limited to 26 weeks in most states. The data does not include some unemployed young workers, who typically have a limited or no work history. The job market for this group remains challenging. REUTERS