IT IS highly unlikely that an independent can win the keys to the White House at next year’s presidential elections, but the signs are there that such a third-party candidate will claim a substantial number of votes that could affect the final outcome of the contest.

Back in 1992, Republican George H W Bush suffered a shock defeat to fresh-faced Democrat Bill Clinton, arguably because billionaire Ross Perot – who ran as an independent – lured millions of conservative business-minded voters from Bush, taking almost 20 per cent of the popular vote.

According to the latest poll by the FiveThirtyEight website, Robert F Kennedy Jr is drawing anywhere between 9 per cent and 13 per cent of the popular vote in a theoretical matchup against the incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump.