Market outlook

What 2025 taught markets, and what comes next

AI hype, tariff shocks, rate cuts and Asia’s surprise winners. What really moved markets in 2025? And what could make or break 2026?

When it comes to the outlook for 2026, the “known unknowns" far outnumber what is known, says the writer.
THINKING ALOUD

Investors must reckon with unknowns

Take the market outlooks with a pinch of salt and watch for true surprises

If the Fed’s policies are to align with US President Donald Trump’s wishes, interest rates could fall further, while inflation and term premiums could rise.

US soft landing expected: Will interest rate cuts further stimulate the market rally?

The stock market outlook remains attractive, with US technology, emerging markets and Japanese stocks showing promise

While banks may benefit in the near term from a stable domestic environment and still-elevated interest margins, relying too heavily on them increases concentration risk. Incorporating S-Reits alongside high-quality bonds can provide capital stability and a more balanced income source. 

The Fed’s pivot signals the start of a new market cycle

It is one where the US is no longer the only game in town

The critical question is whether investors are focusing too much on what could go wrong and missing what is quietly going right.

Are investors overlooking the upside risk in markets?

Stronger earnings, improving market breadth, and modest investor positioning could keep markets advancing

The Taiwan dollar has appreciated more than 10% against the greenback this year, causing wealthy Taiwanese families to re-examine their exposure.

Taiwan investors turn to Europe as US assets lose favour

In the first half of 2025, they poured NT$14.1 billion into Europe-focused funds based overseas, bringing total assets up to NT$134.8 billion

Israeli security forces and first responders gathering in front of a building heavily damaged by an Iranian strike on Tel Aviv. Investors should recognise that a growing range of events has crossed red lines and presage a new regime of elevated geopolitical volatility.
CIO CORNER

Israel vs Iran: Navigating a new regime of geopolitical risk

Periodic spikes in equity and bond market volatility are part of a new equilibrium that requires a proactive risk management approach

Singapore's trade-dependent economy is supported by market reforms, with its stocks often outperforming during bearish times.

Navigating global headwinds and capital shifts in Asia Pacific

AS WE approach the second half of 2025, the investment landscape is facing a series of challenges and opportunities driven by global economic shifts, geopolitical tensions and structural changes.

Historically, geopolitical events in the Middle East have not had a lasting impact on markets unless they cause an oil shock or severe economic damage.

Will the Middle East crisis spark market turmoil?

If the current conflict does not disrupt global oil shipments or supply in any significant way, investor fears could eventually subside

In 2022, as an economic cycle played out, the S&P 500 fell by 25.4% from peak to trough.
SCIENCE OF WEALTH

Why markets rise in the long run

Humans are meant to grow and multiply – the markets reflect this innate design