Nike Killshot is the next Adidas Samba

NIKE has finally found its Samba.

Everyone is searching for what comes after the Adidas sneaker that has been the hottest shoe for the past couple of years. Nike has delved into its archives for some serious contenders: the Killshot and Cortez. Both are being elevated, and they have a good chance of picking up from where Adidas’ viral shoe left off.

If chief executive officer Elliott Hill can take advantage of the buzz, it could ease the pain of clearing out stale models such as the Air Jordan 1 and the Dunk. The damage to revenue and profit from this clean-up exercise was expected to be evident when the company reported third-quarter earnings on Thursday (Mar 20) – but the 9 per cent decline in revenue surpassed analysts’ expectations of an 11 per cent fall.

Still, Hill will have serious competition from his counterpart at Adidas, Bjorn Gulden, who won’t give up the retro-shoe crown without a fight, and is now encouraging fashionistas to dress for the boxing gym rather than the football terraces.

When it comes to revived styles, Adidas’ sneakers, led by the Samba but also including the Handball Spezial and SL 72, still dominate, bolstering the company’s sales and helping it lift operating profit by one billion euros (S$1.4 billion) last year.

But Samba mania appears to have cooled. The craze peaked in March 2024, according to market intelligence company Trendalytics. Since then, Google searches for the Samba began to fall steadily, with Trendalytics’ ascribing a 70 per cent likelihood that the trend will continue to decline over the next three months. It’s a similar picture on TikTok.

Some Nike models, meanwhile, look to be in the ascendance, particularly the Killshot, a gum-soled tennis shoe, with a distinctive “Swoosh”.

Consumer interest in the style began to pick up as the Samba topped out, according to Trendalytics. Google searches for both sneakers in March 2024 were about 230 per cent up on the year earlier. But searches for the Killshot have continued to move upwards, perhaps aided by being featured in Challengers, the tennis movie starring Zendaya. The style is also gaining traction on TikTok. Weekly posts featuring the model have increased by 475 per cent from a year ago, with views up almost 2,000 per cent.

The Killshot is now enjoying stronger demand than the Samba, according to retail intelligence company Edited. However, both lag Adidas’ throwback running style, the SL 72, a slight variation from shoes that took inspiration from football fans.

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Another wild card is Vans’ chequerboard skate shoes, which have faded since their heyday a decade ago. These have been building on TikTok and popping up again IRL (in real life), but have yet to enjoy broad adoption. Vans sales have improved over the past year, although they are still falling.

It’s encouraging that both Nike and VF Corp are recognising their own retro potential, even if they are trailing Adidas, which began to propel its 1980s styles back into popular consciousness in 2021 and 2022, with collaborations with Gucci and British-Jamaican designer Grace Wales Bonner.

As well as producing the Cortez in a wide variety of colours, Nike, last year, introduced a premium version of the Killshot. Low-rise styles typically sell for about US$100, compared with around US$200 for high-end basketball, running and football shoes, and so have lower margins, according to David Swartz, analyst at Morningstar. But Nike pumping out the more popular models could cushion the blow from the pull-back from over-exposed styles.

As for Vans, last year VF Corp appointed Sun Choe as the brand’s president. The former chief product officer of Lululemon Athletica has already taken a leaf out of the Adidas playbook, with collaborations with Proenza Schouler, for example.

But Adidas isn’t letting go of its lead. The company is continuing to push the SL 72, according to Edited’s data, part of a broader move into fashionable running. It’s now also managing the supply of Sambas into some markets so that they don’t become saturated.

Last year, Gulden delayed the relaunch of the Superstar, because there was so much interest in the Samba. He’s now moving ahead, with a raft of collaborations, including with Pharrell Williams.

The executive, who displays a merchant’s instinct for what is hot, is pushing sneaker boundaries in other ways too, with models that sit low on the ankle and have very slim soles, such as the Japan, Tokyo and Taekwondo, and even a high-top boxing shoe. The Taekwondo, leading the “barefoot” trend, was relaunched last year, and is gaining particular traction according to Edited.

Ultimately, Nike’s recovery depends on developing must-have performance shoes that have the power to not only be hits on the field or track, but also be part of everyday wardrobes. After all, Nike and Adidas are fashion brands as well as sportswear companies, something that Gulden clearly understands.

Given that products can take 18 months from design to delivery to stores, new Nike blockbusters could be some way off. For Hill, finding the next viral sneaker, before consumers’ obsession with archive styles dissipates, is a useful interlude.