An American prince wants to be president

THE Kennedys are the closest that comes to an American royal family. One member of the family, John F Kennedy, was US President from 1961-1963, while two of his brothers – Robert and Teddy who both served as senators – had run for the Oval Office.

And this year, Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, 70, a son of Robert Kennedy and an heir to that American political dynasty, is following in the footsteps of all three, as he runs for president.

But unlike the three elder Kennedys who were prominent leaders of the Democratic Party, RFK Jr is running as an independent third-party candidate, and could hurt the chances of the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, Joe Biden, as he seeks a second term in the White House.

Kennedy has become the most prominent independent (or third-party) presence in the 2024 race. And he is now attracting a mix of ideologically diverse supporters and raising a lot of money while drawing attacks from the Democrats as well as from former president Donald J Trump.

Following a troubled youth and young adulthood marked by drug abuse, Kennedy became an environmental lawyer suing corporate polluters, including as part of an effort to clean up the Hudson River watershed. More recently and most controversially, he has become a prominent leader in the anti-vaccine movement, among other things promoting conspiracy theories about the risks of childhood vaccinations and other public health measures.

During the coronavirus pandemic he questioned the safety of Covid vaccines and the official positions about the virus’s origins. His outspoken criticisms of the government’s handling of the pandemic, including broadsides against top public health officials lsuch as Dr Anthony Fauci, and his protests against lockdowns and monitoring of disinformation, have drawn many supporters from across the political spectrum.

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A lifelong Democrat, Kennedy sought to challenge Biden for the party’s nomination when he entered the presidential race in April 2023. He also flirted for a while with the Libertarian Party and considered running under their presidential ticket. But he then announced that he would run as an independent, stating that the Democrats had blocked his efforts.

Hence Kennedy and his supporters have created a new party, “We The People”, to help him secure ballot access in a few states, including in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi and North Carolina.

Much of the talk in Washington and in political circles is whether Kennedy – who remains in some ways a political enigma who transcends the “left” and “right” labels – would draw more voters in a general election from Trump or from Biden.

Recent polls put Kennedy’s support at around 15 per cent, drawing about equally from both the main candidates. In Georgia, considered a swing state in national elections, he averages about 6 per cent in recent polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.

At this stage in the presidential battle, the Democrats seem to be more worried about Kennedy’s candidacy, having been haunted by third-party candidates since 2000, when Ralph Nader, running with the Green Party, was partly blamed for costing Al Gore the election. In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein won more than 30,000 votes in Wisconsin – more than Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in that state.

The Democrats’ worries are highlighted by the polls suggesting that Trump’s base of enthusiastic support is stronger than Biden’s. Hence the arguments that any non-Biden vote benefits Trump. Giving Democrats more choices on the ballot, especially one with the last name Kennedy, is therefore more likely to hurt Biden, particularly in critical swing states.

But more recent polls suggest that Kennedy, who is running as an outsider fighting Washington, could draw some support from populists, especially in Western states like Nevada and Arizona, who may have some reservations about Trump’s candidacy.

Kennedy’s supporters include people who have supported his work with Children’s Health Defence, an activist group primarily known for spreading anti-vaccine disinformation.

Other supporters include Democrats drawn to the Kennedy name and nostalgia for his family, even though most members of the extended Kennedy clan have publicly disavowed his candidacy.

He has also drawn support from libertarians and independents who are distrustful of the federal government.

And Kennedy, whose father was killed by a Palestinian gunman in 1968, has also emerged as a strong supporter of Israel during the campaign, criticising the Biden administration for putting pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza.

Pollsters believe that his position could help him win support among many pro-Israel Democrats.

As of early April, Kennedy is officially on the ballot in one state: Utah. But his campaign insists that he has enough signatures to get on the ballot in Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina. But he still has to submit those signatures in applications to state officials. Each state has different rules for ballot access, and they vary depending on whether a candidate is an independent or with a third party. The time frame to do so in some places, such as Colorado and Louisiana, is narrower and has not started yet.

Kennedy has named Nicole Shanahan, a California lawyer and investor, as his running mate. Shanahan, 38, who was once married to Google co-founder Sergey Brin, is a political newcomer, having never sought or held public office. She has aligned herself with issues that are important to Kennedy, including scepticism of vaccines, and has already given more than US$4.5 million to Super PACs (political action committees) backing Kennedy’s candidacy.

Kennedy’s biggest financial backer is Timothy Mellon, a banking heir and businessman who has given US$20 million to a Super PAC backing Kennedy, American Values 2024. Another major source of funding is Gavin de Becker, whose security firm has been working with Kennedy’s campaign.