Case for Fed pause mounts

A TORRENT of delayed US economic data is set to hit over the next month as the government reopens following its longest shutdown on record, but a growing number of Federal Reserve officials doubt the numbers will show the sort of weakness required to cut rates again this year.

After more than 40 days without official economic data, Fed officials seem to be leaning towards the view that the labour market has held up reasonably well, financial conditions remain loose and above-target inflation is going in the wrong direction.

So unless there is a major surprise in the delayed data about to be released, the case for the third interest rate cut of the year is weakening fast. Even though futures still price roughly a two-thirds chance of another cut in December, that may well prove overly optimistic.