China in the Gulf: stakeholder or hegemon?

BEIJING’S brokering of the Iran-Saudi detente in 2023 sparked a wave of speculation: Is China replacing the United States as the new regional hegemon?

This conclusion, while tempting, misreads Beijing’s actual strategy. China is not a new hegemon; it is a new type of external power – one defined by transactional interests, not territorial or ideological ambition.

China’s involvement in the Middle East is fundamentally different from that of the US or Russia. It is primarily economic and strategic. Beijing has significant energy interests – particularly oil and natural gas imports essential to fuelling its massive economy. China has invested heavily in regional infrastructure through Belt and Road Initiative projects, and maintains diplomatic relationships with various states, often without the historical baggage that burdens Western powers.