Is China winning the competition with the US in South-east Asia?

THE geopolitical competition between China and the US in South-east Asia increasingly tilts in Beijing’s favour. Through a combination of economic integration, diplomatic pragmatism and geographic proximity, China has built structural advantages that American policy struggles to counterbalance.

Economic interdependence as strategic lock-in

China’s economic footprint in South-east Asia dwarfs that of the US. As the region’s largest trading partner, China conducted an estimated US$772.4 billion in merchandise trade with Asean nations in 2024 alone – US-Asean merchandise trade amounted to about US$453.2 billion in the same period. The Belt and Road Initiative has financed critical infrastructure across the region, from high-speed rail in Laos to port facilities in Cambodia and Malaysia. These investments create dependencies that translate into political influence.

While American officials emphasise the quality of democratic partnerships, South-east Asian nations prioritise tangible economic development. China delivers infrastructure at a scale and speed the US cannot match. When Indonesia needs to build its new capital city or the Philippines requires financing for transportation networks, Chinese banks and companies provide immediate, large-scale solutions without the conditions that often accompany Western aid.