China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable

NEED China turn into Japan? No. Might it turn into Japan? Yes. Moreover, the longer it waits to tackle its ailments, the more likely it is to fall seriously ill, with slow growth and chronic deflationary pressure. Some outside analysts believe this is inevitable. But wanting to believe something does not make it true. China’s disease is not incurable. But it is serious.

It is vital to distinguish causes from symptoms, before seeking the cure. Because Chinese policymakers have refused to recognise the nature of the disease, they do not cure it. Over time, they have made it worse by resorting to temporary palliatives. That happened to Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, and has been happening to China in the past two decades. But China retains important strengths. It can still avoid stagnation.

The Chinese government has now announced monetary and fiscal stimulus. That was predictable. It is what, willy-nilly, Japan needed to do. It is also why Japan has had near-zero interest rates for three decades and its net public debt is 159 per cent of GDP.