China’s ‘Trump-sized’ window of opportunity

BEIJING’S grand strategy has long been founded on a long-term transition to power, allowing the nation to grow stronger over an extended horizon. However, this does not mean that unexpected gifts will not be seized by China along the journey.

One such window of opportunity may exist now to significantly boost China’s prestige, given the extraordinary tumult in international relations during the second US presidency of Donald Trump.

This could even be a generational moment not seen since the closing years of George W Bush’s presidency in the midst of the 2008 global economic crisis, and the aftermath of the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The opportunity is evident on at least two levels.

First, there is a growing stream of world leaders travelling to Beijing to meet senior Chinese officials such as President Xi Jinping. These meetings often feature discussions about recasting international relations given the shocks to global affairs in the last 15 months. This builds on Xi’s attempts since 2012 to project Beijing as a responsible global stakeholder.

In addition, public opinion data shows a potential sea change in sentiment. Take the example of a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) report released in January 2026. This polled almost 26,000 respondents across 21 countries in November 2025, around 12 months after Trump’s return to the White House.

Even before this year’s controversies – notably the US seizure of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and the US-Israeli strikes on Iran – polling pointed to growing warmth towards Beijing. So much so that ECFR asserts a “China First” world is on the horizon.

This is founded on opinion trends which show less concern about a rising China in much of the world. More people now see Beijing as a necessary partner or even ally.

Based on the ECFR report, this trend is also appearing in India, where almost half the populace reportedly hold this view – despite historical tensions between the two powers.

Moreover, a growing number of populations in key geographies anticipate deeper ties with China over the next five years. This is perhaps unsurprising in Russia given the close relationship between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What is more striking is that clear majorities in other key emerging markets expect the same, including South Africa (71 per cent) and Brazil (52 per cent). This sentiment is married to growing expectations that China’s already significant global influence will grow – not only politically, but also in tech prowess and economic strength.

In the US and EU, Beijing is widely seen to be increasingly preponderant in renewable energy tech. China is also seen, in the EU, as having a growing global edge on electric vehicles, a view gaining ground but not yet a majority in the US. The data underlines how more countries perceive Beijing as a major force not only in areas such as electric cars, but also in wind and solar industries, robotics and artificial intelligence.

The ECFR data is supported by other surveys, including a Pew Global study published in July 2025. The study, which engaged more than 28,000 people, found that in 15 of 25 nations, people had a favourable view of China.

This marks a significant change since the Covid-19 pandemic, when views of Beijing reached historic lows compared to the last decade, according to Pew data.

From the 25 surveyed nations, more people now perceive Beijing as the world’s leading economic power – a significant shift from two years ago, when considerably more people saw the US in that role. A median of 41 per cent now perceive China as the top economic power, compared to a median of 39 per cent for the US.

These perceptions reflect, in part, the fact that the International Monetary Fund has asserted for over a decade that the Chinese economy is larger than its US counterpart on a purchasing power parity basis. (This adjusts for the fact that goods are cheaper in China and other countries relative to the US.)

However, without these cost adjustments factored in, the Chinese economy remains smaller than the US, and is unlikely to overtake it for many years – if ever.

Potential challenges ahead for Beijing

While these trends are therefore broadly positive for China, they are not uniform and could result in headaches for Beijing.

First, both the ECFR and Pew surveys show that the data about perceptions of China are patchy in places.

The Pew survey found, for instance, that despite the growing sense that China is the top economy, people in nearly all countries surveyed still prioritise strong economic ties with Washington over Beijing.

This finding stands even though the share of people who prioritise economic ties with China has grown in more than half of the countries, compared to earlier Pew surveys.

Moreover, favourable views of China have improved significantly, especially in middle-income nations, but less in higher-income nations. This likely reflects China’s focus on “democratising” the Western-led global order – a message that appeals more to low and mid-income nations.

Furthermore, there have been other occasions, including during Trump’s first presidency, when observers believed the global balance of power had swung in China’s favour. This created tensions beyond Washington.

While many in China welcome recognition of the country’s growing might, it has sometimes exposed the country to greater foreign scrutiny. This has fed into the angst about China’s rise that anti-establishment politicians such as Trump have tried to tap. The brighter spotlight on the country has also exposed a soft-power deficit. Soft power – the attractiveness of a country’s foreign policy, values and culture – is a commodity that Beijing has had limited success in cultivating.

As international perceptions of Chinese power change, its global favourability becomes more difficult to manage.

Especially if this critical scrutiny intensifies, Beijing will need to find better ways to tackle this soft-power problem. China’s image might benefit from greater public diplomacy to win foreign hearts and minds.

For example, Beijing could leverage its growing capabilities in space travel, especially in the positive aftermath of the US Artemis II mission, for high-profile international cooperation projects for the global good.

Taken together, many signs are pointing to a sea change in perceptions of the global political and economic landscape. While this presents a significant soft power opportunity for China, it comes with formidable challenges.

The writer is an associate at LSE Ideas at the London School of Economics