US midterms could lift Democrats – or sink them and boost Trump

QUITE a few Democrats are smiling these days. For months, the conventional wisdom in Washington had been that they would be buried electorally by a powerful Republican “red wave” in the coming midterm election. Given historical trends and polling results, most pollsters predicted that against a backdrop of rising inflation, urban crime and an unpopular Democratic president, the Republicans would emerge as winners on Nov 8, taking over the House of Representatives and gaining a narrow majority in the Senate.

But there are some signs that the trajectory of the election may be changing, thanks in part to the Jun 24 decision by the United States Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade – the 1973 court decision that enshrined the constitutional right to abortion for nearly 50 years – and put abortion rights in the hands of US state legislators.

Opinion polls suggest that the decision may not only energise Democrats to get out and vote in November, but could also have an effect on independent voters and even many Republicans, especially women, who have opposed the ruling by the court’s conservative majority.