US midterms : Not red tsunami, more like a ripple

ON THE eve of the 2020 presidential election, many Democrats anticipated that after four years of disruption and scandal in the White House, an anti-President Donald Trump electoral backlash would translate into a “blue wave” under which, in addition to capturing the White House, their party would also sweep into the House of Representatives and the Senate and bury the Republicans.

Well, Democratic Candidate Joe Biden did win the election, but only by a narrow margin of several (tens of) thousands of votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona.

And the Democrats actually ended up losing some seats in the House and failed to take over the Senate – the outcome a clear message to them and President Biden in 2020 that they didn’t have an electoral mandate for launching radical changes. In retrospect, it was too bad that the Democrats didn’t seem to get that message.

But in a way, the 2022 midterm elections are now looking more and more for the Republicans like a rerun of the 2020 wave-that-didn’t-happen. The Republicans who were screaming “the red tsunami is coming” can be compared to the mouse that roared.

There was some political logic driving the earlier Republican expectations. Historically, midterm elections have ended up with the party in control in the White House losing seats in Congress.

And against the backdrop of rising prices, growing public fears over urban violence, an unpopular Democrat president, and a noisy bunch of left-leaning Democrats promoting woke-style clichés, Republicans were expecting that the backlash against the Democrats would lead them to a big win on Nov 8.

It will be a “great night” for Republicans, predicted Trump who endorsed some of the GOP candidates who were running for Congress and for governorships. In fact, pundits expected that immediately after the “great night”, the former president would announce a run for the White House in 2024.

While the Democrats are going to lose their slim majority in the House and it’s possible that after all the votes are counted that the Republicans may gain control of the Senate, the GOP gains will not amount to a tsunami or even to a wave, the kind which the Republicans rode on after the 2010 midterms when they delivered a devastating electoral blow to the Democrat President Barack Obama which, some predicted, would impair his re-election bid in 2012. President Obama, as we know, was then re-elected for another term in office.

But much of this year’s Republican expectations proved to be no more than fantasies, like the hopes that an ardent Trumpist, Representative Lee Zeldin, would beat New York Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, in one of the most Democrat-blue states in the country.

Or that a conspiracy theorist, Republican Don Bolduc, who insists that the 2020 presidential election was stolen by the “elites”, would defeat Senator Maggie Hassan from New Hampshire, a centrist Democrat in a state where voters are known for their middle-of-the-road political views.

Even more harmful to the Republican brand was the failure of the Republican Senate candidate from Philadelphia, a celebrated medical doctor, American-Turkish Mehmet Oz, to win the race against left-leaning Democrat lieutenant-governor John Fetterman.

Fetterman suffered a stroke earlier this year which left him with symptoms of an auditory processing disorder. He has therefore used closed captioning as an aid during speeches as well as in his televised debate with Dr Oz.

Why would Pennsylvania voters prefer to send to Washington a man who has difficulty understanding speech and enunciating words over the articulate and smart Dr Oz?

It is perhaps because Dr Oz was endorsed by Trump who is loathed by many centrist Republicans and conservative Democrats in Pennsylvania, while celebrity talk show host Oprah Winfrey, better late than never, came out in support of Fetterman in the closing stages of the contest.

If Republican primary voters had nominated businessman Dave McCormick for the Senate instead of the candidate endorsed by Trump, it’s quite likely that the more moderate Republican McCormick would have beaten Fetterman on Tuesday.

In the gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania, another Republican Trumpist, right-wing radical and Christian nationalist, Doug Mastriano, was beaten by a double-digit margin by centrist Democrat candidate Josh Shapiro.

Similarly, a candidate backed by Trump failed in her challenge to Democrat Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Also demonstrating how the Trump tag has proved to be a political liability to Republicans were the races for the Senate and the Governor in Georgia.

Hence the popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp defeated his Democrat challenger Stacey Abrams by close to 10 points despite his traditional conservative positions on many issues, including abortion.

But then Trump does hate Kemp, really hates him, because the governor had ratified the results of the 2020 presidential election. And in vengence Trump has done everything in his power to make the governor pay for daring to challenge him – which apparently was one reason he did well in the race on Tuesday.

At the same time, with the votes still being counted, the Republican Senate candidate and former football star, Herschel Walker, who once suggested that US climate efforts were pointless because “China’s bad air” would simply move over into America’s “air space” and who was crowned as a candidate by Trump, is trailing his rival, Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock. If neither man secures more than 50 per cent of the vote, the two would face a runoff.

It’s too early to know whether the ardent Trumpists running in the Senate races in Arizona and Nevada will succeed in ousting the current Democrat incumbents, although most pollsters predict that that was more likely to happen in Nevada, where Republican Adam Laxalt has a good chance of beating Democrat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.

In that case, the balance of power in the Senate would change only if Walker wins the Senate race in Georgia, which would allow the Republicans to take over both the Senate and the House.

But under that scenario, the Majority Leader in the Senate would be Republican Senator Mitch McConnell from Kentucky, whom Trump regards as a political and personal nemesis. Trump has called for Senator McConnell’s impeachment and hurled a racist nickname at his wife, former transportation secretary Elaine Chao, a Taiwanese American, calling her “China loving wife, Coco Chow!”

But Trump’s biggest political blow on Tuesday was the impressive re-election victory of Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis who, after winning 60 per cent of the vote, including the support of traditionally Democrat constituencies like Hispanics, now seems to be ready for a major fight with another resident of the state, Trump, over their party’s presidential nomination.

In fact, Trump has already warned DeSantis not to run for president in 2024 and threatened to reveal information about him if he does.

“I think if he runs he could hurt himself very badly,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “I think the base would not like it, I don’t think it would be good for the party,” he said, and suggested that he would tell reporters “things” about the Florida governor “that won’t be very flattering”.