Could BYD’s best days be behind it?

[SINGAPORE] BYD ended 2025 right where it started, in the top spot on the sales charts here. There is much to unpack beneath that simple stat, however.

All through last year, it looked unstoppable, reporting higher month-on-month sales without fail. It eventually snagged 21.3 per cent of the market and grew its volume 80 per cent. In Singapore, it became the first brand to sell more than 10,000 cars in a year since the 2020s began.

Remarkably, only five car companies control two-thirds of the Singapore market, and belonging to the BYD fold has been rewarding for its five retailers; such is the brand’s volume that being one of its sub-dealers can mean outselling the distributors of established names such as Audi, Hyundai or Volvo.

It is news to no one that electric vehicle (EV) brands are grabbing sales from legacy players, but BYD has been more successful than anyone else at capitalising on the clean-air incentives and tax breaks that have done so much to buoy EV sales.

What is less clear is how long the good times will last.

This year, the Electric Vehicle Early Adoption Incentive has been halved to S$7,500, and it will be removed altogether in 2027. The Enhanced Vehicular Emissions Scheme rebate is also being tapered, capping the total incentives for buying an EV at S$30,000 this year, down from S$40,000 in 2025. Next year, the maximum rebate an EV can qualify for is S$20,000.

Electric cars will still enjoy policy support, but the easy arithmetic that helped tip thousands of buyers away from combustion power will look less compelling. Psychologically, buying an EV will no longer feel quite so much like beating the system.

That being so, 2026 could be BYD’s last great year in Singapore. Mind you, the brand will likely retain the top spot, especially when it goes all out late in the year to capture buyers rushing to beat 2027’s reduced incentives.

Sheer momentum, along with the fact that its cars are competitive and competitively priced, should see it through to another year of being the market leader.

But insiders are well aware that the party will end someday. “We can’t be on top forever,” a director for the brand’s distributor said to me in January. “I’ll just enjoy it while it lasts.”

Yet, the fundamentals of car-buying have changed such that, dollar for dollar, choosing an electric car now means enjoying more space, more features and more power than sticking with combustion, even when incentives are wound down. EVs will continue gaining momentum on merit alone, in other words.

That doesn’t guarantee BYD will emerge on top again in 2027, of course. But combustion power is unlikely to make a dramatic comeback. If anyone sneaks BYD’s crown, it will be another Chinese brand, tempered by hypercompetitive conditions at home and a brutal price war that is being exported here. The likes of GAC Aion, Leapmotor, MG and XPeng all build compelling cars.

None yet has the brand recognition or product breadth to rival BYD and its full portfolio, which speaks to how it reached the top here in the first place. Those waiting for the brand to fizzle out in 2027 will have to wait longer.