Decouple the Gaza war from US-China relationship
THE Ukraine war seems to have created in Washington the outlines of a post-Cold War international system, under which a Western democratic bloc led by the United States is facing a Sino-Russo axis of authoritarian states that is challenging the post-1945 liberal global order.
This “new Cold War” narrative disregards the reality in which the strategic interests of Moscow and China – or, for that matter, the US and France – are not necessarily aligned. Hence the Chinese didn’t support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the French don’t back the US’ “decoupling” approach towards China. And the global balance of power could change once again depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the Gaza war has encouraged members of Washington’s foreign-policy community to try to extend the new Cold War narrative, and integrate into it what is basically a national-ethnic war between the Israelis and Palestinians – and, in a wider context, a conflict between two regional powers, Israel and Iran and its regional proxies. These pundits in Washington suggest that we are now facing a confrontation between a China-Russia-Iran-Hamas axis and a Western bloc allied with Israel and that, before we know it, Cold War II would be transformed into World War III.
It’s true that the Hamas attack torpedoed the process of normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and thus delivered a blow to US interests in the Middle East. By extension that may be benefiting China and Russia. Both of them have been strengthening their ties with Iran, including by inviting it to join the Brics economic club which is supposed to counter American geo-economic interests.
And both Moscow and Beijing seek to see the US reassess its global strategic ambitions and reorient its diplomatic attention and military resources from Ukraine and Taiwan and back to the Middle East.
But in reality, the response of the Chinese – or, for that matter, the Russians – to the Gaza war is not part of any grand geo-strategic plan but, if anything, is simply more opportunistic in nature, seeking to exploit America’s problems. That is very different from suggesting that their strategic interests are aligned with that of Iran or that they support Hamas.
In fact, China maintains dynamic cooperation with Israel in the technological and scientific fields. And the Israelis, resisting US pressure, didn’t support America’s anti-China strategy.
At the same time, Russia under President Vladimir Putin has had friendly relations with Israel, with its large community of Russian-speaking immigrants, and has given Israel the green light to attack military targets in Syria – which explains why Israel, despite US pressure, hasn’t joined the pro-Ukraine coalition.
Moreover, China and Russia don’t necessarily share the same interests in the Middle East. In addition to its geographical proximity, Russia has historical ties to the region going back to the Crimean War, while China’s engagement with West Asia, based mostly on economic interests, is much more haphazard.
Most recently, the Chinese have played a constructive role in the Middle East, mediating the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia and helping to reach a deal between the two that ended the bloody civil war in Yemen.
In a way, China – whose economy is dependent on oil from the Middle East – wouldn’t want West Asia to be consumed by a regional war that could lead to a global energy crisis.
From that perspective, the US and China share a common interest in defusing the crisis in the Middle East and ensuring that other regional players – in particular Iran and its Lebanese Hizbollah proxy – don’t join the war against Israel, a development that may force the US to intervene in order to defend Israel.
So instead of accusing China of forming an anti-Israel and pro-Iran bloc, Washington could try to work with the Chinese to end the conflict in the Middle East.
The Americans could try to ask Beijing to press Iran to tame its Hizbollah proxy and to refrain from entering into a war with Israel. The Chinese can even help promote the renewal of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process that could lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state side-by-side with Israel.
At a time when the goal should be to stabilise the Middle East and the entire international system – clearly Chinese goals too – why not pursue some form of creative diplomacy for a change?
