Hard math is driving Thailand’s race to reinvention

THAILAND is racing to both revive – and renovate – the economy, bringing with it profound social changes. Infamous for its role in Asia’s financial meltdown a generation ago, the country is today running headlong into a hurdle confronting the region: a dwindling, and greying, population.

Japan, South Korea and Singapore attract much attention for their low birth rates and multiplying ranks of seniors. This trio were fortunate enough to become rich before they grew old; they have the financial capacity to manage the transition. Malaysia and the Philippines, nowhere near as wealthy, face a slowdown in births that has not yet become a consuming policy challenge.

But, Thailand is squeezed in a way these neighbours are not. The country is an emerging market with advanced economy demographics: Few babies are coming into the world while ranks of seniors are swelling, but without the social safety net that typifies some wealthy regional counterparts, or the US, or Western Europe. Its fertility rate is barely half the level at which a population can naturally replenish itself; headcount could shrink by 50 per cent over the next six decades in the absence of urgent measures, the health ministry warned recently. The number of working-age people will shrivel to a mere 14 million from 46 million currently, according to the projections.