The jobs numbers went down, but trust in them shouldn’t
When government agencies revise their data, as the US’ Bureau of Labor Statistics did last month, it usually means they have more reliable information
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ONE day last month, 818,000 jobs vanished from the US economy. Or did they? It would be more accurate to say that the government revised its official estimate of jobs based on new information. While noteworthy, this preliminary revision shouldn’t undermine its credibility.
What happened is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a statement that 818,000 fewer non-farm payroll jobs (or 0.5 per cent of the total) were likely created from March 2023 to March 2024 than it had previously announced. This led some partisans to charge that the bureau had been “cooking the books” for political purposes.
In fact, revisions are a normal part of obtaining an accurate picture of the nearly US$30 trillion US economy with a labour force of about 170 million people. If the United States wants timely statistics – and to limit the burden on survey participants – then revisions are a necessary by-product.
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