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Market calls for 2026 already laced with ‘Buy, but...’

The conviction about the economic picture seems weaker than usual

Summarise
    • There is a tendency – but a slowing one – to lean on an AI-led capex spending as a reason for optimism about 2026.
    • There is a tendency – but a slowing one – to lean on an AI-led capex spending as a reason for optimism about 2026. ILLUSTRATION: REUTERS

    Mike Dolan

    Published Tue, Dec 2, 2025 · 06:46 PM

    AS CONSENSUS forms around next year’s investment outlook, it is hard to find many outright stock market bears. Yet, an economic mix not seen for more than half a century means few forecasts come without serious qualifiers.

    The biggest puzzle of 2025 is transpiring to be less about how markets shrugged off US President Donald Trump’s tariff war and more about how the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom has managed to accelerate without creating many jobs.

    As economists at JPMorgan insist, the juxtaposition of an AI-led capex explosion and stalling labour market has not been evident in any US expansion for the past 60 years.

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