More commotion than motion in foreign exchange markets

THE 2024 global economic outlook is less than stellar. Enormous growth, macroeconomic policy and geopolitical uncertainties pervade the outlook and foreign exchange markets. How this plays out is anybody’s guess.

Global growth will be weak, if not stagnant in 2024, falling from 2023’s modest pace. Solid US growth propped up the global economy last year, but the US outlook in 2024 is considerably weaker. Most buy into the US soft landing story, though contractionary forces are present and growth will be well below potential.

The euro area, now bordering on recession, faces stagnation. Germany’s mistaken and ill-considered return to the “debt brake” will reinforce weakness.