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OUTLOOK 2024
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More commotion than motion in foreign exchange markets

Prepare for anaemic global growth and geopolitical turbulence

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    • On balance, foreign exchange market players will have much turbulence to wring their hands over in 2024, particularly a flurry of central bank rate shifts and geopolitical volatility.
    • On balance, foreign exchange market players will have much turbulence to wring their hands over in 2024, particularly a flurry of central bank rate shifts and geopolitical volatility. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

    DeeperDive is a beta AI feature. Refer to full articles for the facts.

    Mark Sobel

    Published Fri, Jan 5, 2024 · 10:10 PM

    THE 2024 global economic outlook is less than stellar. Enormous growth, macroeconomic policy and geopolitical uncertainties pervade the outlook and foreign exchange markets. How this plays out is anybody’s guess.

    Global growth will be weak, if not stagnant in 2024, falling from 2023’s modest pace. Solid US growth propped up the global economy last year, but the US outlook in 2024 is considerably weaker. Most buy into the US soft landing story, though contractionary forces are present and growth will be well below potential.

    The euro area, now bordering on recession, faces stagnation. Germany’s mistaken and ill-considered return to the “debt brake” will reinforce weakness.

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