A political wild card – will a felon be elected president?

HE HAS emerged politically unscathed from numerous scandals, allegations of sexual abuse and financial illegality, not to mention two impeachments.

But can Donald Trump and his presidential campaign survive now that he has become a convicted felon? He was found guilty last Thursday (May 30) by a New York jury on all 34 counts in his hush-money case, in what was the first criminal trial of a former president.

American voters will be the jurors come Nov 5, after a political campaign in which Trump is expected to use the trial and the other prosecutions he is facing as a rallying cry for his supporters.

“The real verdict is gonna be Nov 5 by the people,” Trump said after the verdict on Thursday. “And they know what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here.”

President Joe Biden said on X: “There’s only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box.”

After the legal verdict on Thursday, Republicans rallied to Trump’s defence. Speaker of the House, Representative Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, called it a “shameful day in American history”. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, a one-time foe of the former president, said that the charges should never have been brought in the first place and he expected Trump to win on appeal.

These and similar responses show how much hold Trump continues to have on the Republican Party, which he has effectively taken over. There are very few voices of dissent. And the former president can certainly rely on members of his electoral base to support him even after being convicted of a crime.

In fact, following his conviction, Trump attended a campaign fundraiser at a private residence in New York amid indications that his donor base is growing – underscoring that he remains undeterred in his latest presidential bid.

Next up is a Jul 11 sentencing date, when Trump’s lawyers and prosecutors will come together before a judge and argue for what they believe would be an appropriate sentence.

The judge ultimately sets that, but what is interesting is that Jul 11 is just days before the Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. That’s when Trump will be formally made the Republican nominee for president, even if the judge sentences him to jail time.

Two weeks before the sentencing, on Jun 27, Trump and Biden will hold their first televised debate of the season, which will provide an opportunity for both to address voters who have not decided which of the two candidates to support.

The problem is that, according to polls, very few registered voters remain undecided.

And by mid-July, at the Grand Old Party (GOP) convention, Trump would have chosen a running mate. The talk in Washington is that his vice-president pick will likely be Republican senator J D Vance from Ohio.

Trump also faces prosecution in three other criminal cases, though they are unlikely to go to trial before the Nov 5 election.

Some polls have shown a small percentage of GOP voters would think differently about supporting Trump should he be convicted. And in a tight race, a few thousand voters switching from one candidate to the other could make a huge difference in the outcome.

According to a newly released NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 67 per cent of voters said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote, while 17 per cent said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

A New York Times/Siena College poll from Oct 7 showed that 7 per cent of Trump’s supporters said that they would vote for Biden if Trump is found guilty in a criminal case.

At the same time, a Marquette Law School poll indicated that Biden’s electoral lead would grow by four points if Trump is convicted.

Opinion polls continue to show that the economy remains the major driving force among voters, and that is unlikely to change regardless of the Trump verdict.

Voters tell pollsters that they felt better about their economic standing under Trump than under Biden, despite seeing strong job growth and a soaring stock market, although Biden continues to struggle with inflation.

Indeed, on the economy and inflation, Americans trust Trump over Biden by a margin of 14 percentage points, based on a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. Biden also continues to have problems maintaining support with Black, Hispanic and young voters.

According to the results of opinion polls conducted before Thursday’s verdict, Trump has held a small but steady lead in battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. It is too soon to conclude whether last week’s verdict will change this trend.