Recession may be the only thing that can save Trump

DONALD Trump is sliding in the latest polls against his Democratic challenger Kamala Harris, and the only thing that can save him as the election looms large might be the arrival of a recession.

Stock markets worldwide were hammered last week by fears that the Federal Reserve was changing its monetary policy too late to avert a major recession in the world’s largest economy.

Consumer-oriented companies such as Airbnb and McDonald’s have corroborated worrying signs in the latest labour market data, warning that demand for their services is dwindling in the US.

Trump celebrated the market developments on his social media accounts, blaming the Biden administration for the emerging economic malaise. While economists agree that presidents actually have little control over economic cycles, pollsters warn that recessions weigh on the incumbent’s chances of re-election. 

A series of recent polls collated by the FiveThirtyEight Web site have shown Harris edging slightly ahead of Trump, in some cases by as wide a margin as three percentage points.

This is a complete reversal from the solid lead that Trump had built over President Joe Biden just a few weeks ago. Harris’ selection of army veteran Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate could extend her lead by appealing to the rural voters who have been Trump’s most dependable supporters.

“Trump no longer retains a polling advantage in all seven critical swing states, where both candidates’ narrow advantages are well within the margin of error,” said Tom McLoughlin, co-lead of the ElectionWatch project at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note to clients.

The race is too close to call on the Polymarket predictions website, which currently gives Trump a 50 per cent chance of winning the election, and Harris just a step behind with a 49 per cent chance. Worryingly for Trump, Harris’ poll numbers seem to be improving by the day.

The summer has been a perfect illustration of the old adage about time moving much more quickly in political seasons.

Coming off the last televised debate on Jun 27, Trump had all the upward momentum, while Biden’s slumped shoulders prefigured his poll numbers after his befuddled performance.

When Trump narrowly avoided being assassinated on Jul 13, the Republican convention in Milwaukee the following week suddenly gained all the trappings of a coronation.

Biden’s shock exit from the election resulted in Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. Now, the race is turned upside down. This is a race between a squeaky-clean prosecutor and a felon with multiple convictions. It’s a race between the 59-year-old daughter of ambitious immigrants, and a 78-year-old trying to whip up immigrant hatred.

This is a race between a woman whose career could only have happened in the 21st century, and a man who is an unabashed personification of the 1980s.

The Trump campaign invested considerable time and energy into the argument that Biden was yesterday’s man. Those words no longer hold any weight.

The polls convinced Biden that he had to do the right thing and withdraw. As he said in an interview on Sunday (Aug 11), he chose to end his re-election bid after hearing from congressional Democrats that he would hurt their down-ballot chances.

Many political observers would agree that Harris has been somewhat disappointing as vice-president. Now that she has been thrust into the spotlight as a possible commander-in-chief, she is a person transformed.

The dynamism and iron will that Harris had exhibited earlier in her career as the top justice official in California and as a senator sprang to the fore the moment Biden made his decision.

Her chief strategy is a simple one, and that is to make this a generational battle.

Biden and Harris observed how disgusted younger voters expressed themselves in the polls with a choice between two ancients – an 81-year-old Biden and his opponent Trump who is just three years younger.

Harris has bounded onto the political stage with her energy, and suddenly she is outflanking Trump on his favourite social media battlegrounds. She may have only 20 million followers to Trump’s 80 million on X, but her followers are growing by the day.

More American voters are realising that very few presidential candidates in US history are as hard-nosed or as eminently qualified for the top job as Harris. That is why the comment by Trump’s vice-presidential running mate JD Vance that Harris is a “childless cat lady” had backfired.

Trump has claimed that the stock market surge in July was triggered by his improved odds of winning the election in the wake of the Jun 27 debate.

Democrats will hope that he was correct. For a corollary of Trump’s theory would be that the recent rout in stocks does not foreshadow a recession, but merely the ascent of a slightly less business-friendly presidential prospect. The celebration of the inevitable Trump tax cut may have been cancelled in favour of a more sober welcoming of a Harris presidency.

If, however, a recession should rapidly descend in the coming weeks, the momentum could shift again – this time, back in Trump’s favour.