The replace-Biden Democratic coup fantasy

ON AUG 7, 1974, three senior Republicans – US senator Barry Goldwater from Arizona; US House minority leader John Rhodes, also from Arizona; and US Senate minority leader Hugh Scott from Pennsylvania – met then president Richard Nixon at the Old Executive Office Building of the White House and delivered a very blunt message.

They made it clear to the embattled president that he faced all-but-certain impeachment conviction in Congress and removal from office in connection with the Watergate scandal.

In his 1988 autobiography, Goldwater said that after hearing their grim assessment, Nixon “knew beyond any doubt that one way or another his presidency was finished”. “None of us doubted the outcome. He would resign,” Goldwater wrote.

And, indeed, Nixon announced his resignation the next evening, effective at noon on Aug 9, 1974.

Many Democrats are now fantasising about a similar scenario occurring in Washington before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

In this scenario, former speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi from California; Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer from New York; and former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, meet President Joe Biden at the White House, and press him to announce as soon as possible that he will not, after all, run for a second term in office.

Indeed, every time Biden appears in public of late, it raises the question whether the ageing president is fit for office.

Standing motionless and staring blankly in public appearances, the image of the 81-year-old president as cognitively challenged is creating a sense of unease even among the president’s closest aides.

President Biden’s average approval rating hit a new low of 37.4 per cent two weeks back, with a clear majority of voters, including Democrats, expressing concern about his age.

“Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk,” polling expert Nate Silver wrote on social media recently. “Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”

Pundits have compared Biden to the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who angered many Democrats by refusing to retire during Obama’s tenure in office and subsequently passed away during Donald Trump’s term, allowing the Republican president to nominate a conservative justice.

Some Democrats have argued that Biden should not have run for re-election. In fact, during the 2020 presidential campaign, he insisted that his main goal was to get Trump out of office and then serve only one term.

Members of the Biden team hope that the scheduled televised 90-minute-long CNN presidential debate that will be telecast on Jun 27 will reassure voters that Biden remains fit for office.

But, Biden will face major challenges during the debate. He would have to demonstrate sustained mental acuity. He cannot “freeze” or stare blankly at the camera, or sound confused or incoherent.

The incumbent president must deliver a strong defence of his policies, and point out that some 25 million more Americans were working last month than when he took office in January 2021, that the stock market is booming, and that, contrary to public perception, the inflation numbers are declining.

And he may also try to deliver a populist “I’m-fighting-for-you” punch, accusing his Republican adversary of pandering to the rich while he supported tax hikes on big corporations and cheaper drug prices.

Considering his past performance, Biden has a good chance of beating Trump in the televised debate. Polls suggested that he had won the 2020 debate against then president Trump, who came across as angry, rambling and incoherent, leading an exasperated Biden to respond with a “Will you shut up, man”.

But then those Democrats who are hoping that Biden will win the debate this week should recall that during the 2016 presidential race, then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton had won the two television debates with Trump – only to end up losing the election.

President Biden’s main target during the debate will be independent voters. According to opinion polls, more than 20 per cent of them indicated that Trump’s conviction in the courts would make them less likely to vote for him. Expect Biden to ask viewers: “Will you vote for this convicted felon?”

Another target group is female voters. Polls suggest that the ruling by the United States Supreme Court to de-legalise abortion, delivered thanks to the conservative justices whom Trump had appointed, could affect the choices of a large percentage of women; although other analysts and commentators believe that the issue doesn’t top the agenda for most of them.

According to press reports, Biden’s political aides wanted to have an early televised debate so that they could break the polling impasse he is facing before the presidential campaign goes into full swing and enters the home stretch. But while an effective debate performance by Biden could help rally Democrats behind him, a significant blunder could encourage more talk about replacing him as the Democratic Party’s candidate. It could prove to be President Biden’s political Waterloo.

There has been a lot of talk in political circles in Washington that if, indeed, Biden stumbles in his upcoming televised encounter with Trump and the polling numbers keep falling, Democratic Party elders such as former presidents Obama and Clinton may advise him to opt out of the race. He would then be replaced by a younger candidate such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or Illinois Governor JB Pritzker who supposedly would have a better chance of winning in November.

But in the unlikely case that that happens, it is doubtful that Biden and members of his family will decide to bow out. Politicians rarely give up power and the Bidenists are confident that their man still has a chance to beat Trump on Nov 5.

Moreover, a candidate swap could ignite a political bloodbath in the Democratic Party if Vice-President Kamala Harris does not agree to give up her place on the top of the ticket to a more attractive substitute. Yet most polls indicate that she would lose a presidential race against Trump.