Trump moves towards deal with Iran on nuclear programme
Early indirect talks between negotiators gave off positive vibes, though US threat of ‘bombing’ lurks
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump started his second term vowing not to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. He was, after all, the president who, seven years ago during his first term, revoked the earlier international nuclear agreement with Tehran – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
With the Islamic Republic closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb, reportedly amassing enough near-bomb-grade uranium for several nuclear devices, the Trump Administration has moved to apply “maximum pressure” through economic sanctions against Tehran. American B-2 bombers have massed in Diego Garcia, and a second US aircraft group has been deployed to the Middle East.
But then Trump also told reporters: “I say this to Iran, who’s listening very intently, ‘I would love to be able to make a great deal. A deal where you can get on with your lives.’”
Indeed, the president has offered to launch “direct” talks with Iran, but also warned that “I think that Iran is going to be in great danger”, if the talks fail.
“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” Trump said recently, laying down a tough marker. “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,” he warned.
It’s possible that Trump’s unorthodox ways of doing diplomacy – proposing a mix of sticks and carrots – would make it more likely that the talks between the two nations that started in Muscat, Oman, on Apr 12 would end with the kind of deal that the former real-estate tycoon likes to make.
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Trump selected another real estate executive, his golf buddy Steven Witkoff, to manage the negotiations with Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister.
“I think that our position begins with dismantlement of (Iran’s) programme,” Witkoff told the Wall Street Journal. He added, however, that that “doesn’t mean, by the way, that at the margin we’re not going to find other ways to find compromise between the two countries”. Although he insisted that “where our red line will be – there can’t be weaponisation of (Iran’s) nuclear capability”.
The vibes emanating from the preliminary two hours of indirect talks between the American and Iranian negotiators on Saturday (Apr 12) sounded positive – they ended with a handshake and were described by both as constructive.
The White House said in a statement that Witkoff “underscored to Dr Araghchi that he had instructions from President Trump to resolve our two nations’ differences through dialogue and diplomacy if that is possible”. The negotiators are scheduled to meet to continue talks on Saturday.
The US is entering the talks with certain advantages: The Iranian economy is tottering, and public support is dwindling. Most significantly, Iran’s “axis of resistance”, Iran’s network of allies and proxies, in the Middle East, including Gaza’s Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizbollah, has crumbled under Israeli military attacks, as have Iran’s air defences. Its client state, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, has been pulled to pieces.
But then the changing global balance of power makes it more difficult for Washington to press Iran to make concessions. The international coalition that backed the US during the 2015 negotiations with Tehran is no more. The Europeans have diplomatic relations with Iran, and relations with China and Russia have been reshaped by tensions over trade and Ukraine.
Notwithstanding Trump’s threat to use force against Iran, the last thing he needs now on his global agenda is to draw the US into another war in the Middle East. Recall that he entered office pledging to be the “peacemaker” who would end the current wars and ensure that “we never get into” new ones.
While the president was surrounded by Iran hawks during his first term in office, advisers such as Witkoff have expressed a willingness to negotiate and make a deal with the Iranians.
Trump reportedly wants a deal that would lead to Iran agreeing to stop and dismantle its uranium enrichment programme.
That has been rejected in the past by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Instead, the Iranians want a deal similar to the 2015 JCPOA agreement, under which Tehran accepted a strict limit on enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. They insist that Iran shouldn’t be prevented from enriching uranium for civilian purposes.
The Americans also want Iran to pledge to end its support for its regional proxies including the Houthis in Yemen, in addition to Hamas and Hizbollah, a demand that Tehran has rejected.
Since Trump had revoked the JCPOA, Iran was able to increase its nuclear activity, with its stockpile of enriched uranium now more than 8,200 kg. According to reports, it has been enriching uranium up to 60 per cent, which is close to weapons grade, and now has the capacity to produce sufficient material for several bombs within weeks.
One of the ideas being floated around is for the US to unlock US$6 billion of Iranian oil money held in accounts in Doha, frozen during Trump’s first term.
Israel is very concerned about any signal of a diplomatic detente between Washington and Tehran. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has demanded a “Libya solution”, along the lines of the decision by Muammar Gaddafi to give up his nuclear programme in 2003. The Ayatollahs will not accept that.
Instead, Israel would like to get the green light from Trump to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Like all major policy issues in Washington, the decision would depend on President Trump. And all the signs are that he wants a deal with Tehran even if that leads to disagreement with Jerusalem.
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