Trump’s economic promises meet political reality
The 2026 midterm elections loom as a potential disaster
FOR nearly a decade, Donald Trump has demonstrated an almost supernatural ability to defy political gravity. Scandals that would sink other politicians barely dented his armour. Legal challenges strengthened rather than weakened his base. Internal party revolts dissolved before his force of personality.
But as 2026 unfolds, a fundamentally different dynamic appears to be taking hold, one where the US president’s signature promises collide with stubborn economic realities.
The economic reckoning
Trump secured his 2024 victory on the strength of voter confidence in his economic management. Yet, just over a year into his second term, that confidence has evaporated.
A recent AP-Norc poll found his approval rating on economic issues has hit 39 per cent, with 63 per cent of voters now disapproving of his economic performance – one of his worst showings since returning to office.
The source of this erosion is daily economic pain. Households face up to US$2,100 in additional annual costs due to the combined effects of tariffs and persistent inflationary pressures. While the unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.4 per cent, it has ticked upward over the last year, signalling a cooling labour market.
Most damaging is the public’s assessment of tariffs. Based on YouGov statistics, a staggering 69 per cent of Americans – including a majority of Republicans – believe tariffs are raising prices rather than protecting workers.
This represents a devastating repudiation of Trump’s core economic philosophy. With only 11 per cent of Americans supporting additional tariff increases, the political foundation for his trade war has essentially collapsed.
Trump’s effort to deflect blame has fallen flat; nearly half of the electorate holds him directly responsible for current conditions.
More troubling for the White House, 61 per cent of voters say that when the president discusses the economy, he makes the situation sound better than it actually is – a perception that undermines his credibility on his formerly strongest issue.
The political consequences
These economic disappointments are translating into historic political vulnerability. Trump’s overall approval rating has sunk to about 38 per cent in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. This low is surpassed only by Richard Nixon at a comparable point in his presidency.
More ominously for Republicans, the party’s advantage on economic management has vanished. Democrats now lead Republicans on handling the economy, with significant leads among independents and Hispanic voters – a demographic Trump made inroads with in 2024.
The 2026 midterm elections loom as a potential disaster. Democrats currently enjoy a commanding lead in generic congressional polling. With Trump’s approval underwater, the party’s slim majorities in both chambers appear increasingly vulnerable.
The populist pivot
Facing these dire indicators, Trump has executed a remarkable ideological pivot.
In recent weeks, he has proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10 per cent for one year and signed an executive order to bar large private equity funds from purchasing single-family residential housing. These proposals read like a progressive wish list and represent a sharp departure from traditional Republican orthodoxy.
The inspiration for these moves is transparent: Trump’s credit card cap proposal mirrors calls from Senator Bernie Sanders, and his housing policy echoes themes from Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign.
This populist turn has unsettled many Republicans. One House Republican, speaking anonymously, dismissed the proposals as “hiding from your record”.
Broader implications
Beyond immediate political calculations, Trump’s struggles reflect deeper structural challenges.
His first-year policies have created what economists describe as government-induced uncertainty. Businesses delay investment when trade policies and regulatory frameworks shift unpredictably. This uncertainty acts as a drag on growth even when headline gross domestic product figures appear robust.
Economic expectations remain grim. Only one-third of Americans believe their family finances will improve this year. Whether this moment represents the beginning of Trump’s political decline remains uncertain. He has defied predictions of his demise many times before.
But the convergence of economic disappointment and eroding base support differs qualitatively from previous challenges. Trump won the presidency by promising to make life more affordable; as prices rise, the gap between promise and reality has become impossible to ignore.
