The US-India trade deal: Strategic reset or fragile truce?

IN A flurry of activity that caught many observers by surprise, US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a trade deal on Monday (Feb 2), marking a dramatic shift in what had been increasingly fractious economic relations between the world’s two largest democracies.

The announcement, made via Trump’s Truth Social platform, promises reduced tariffs and increased trade, but the details remain frustratingly sparse, and the path forward is anything but certain.

At its core, the agreement reduces the US tariff rate on Indian goods from a punishing 50 per cent to 18 per cent. This represents significant relief for India, which had been subjected to a 25 per cent baseline “reciprocal tariff” plus an additional 25 per cent penalty imposed last year over its purchases of Russian oil.