As US primary election race heats up, Trump v Biden rematch remains firmly on the cards

AS THE US presidential primary campaigns kick into higher gear, the contest could herald the return of political instability in the world’s largest economy.

Democratic President Joe Biden is as vulnerable to a party challenger as any post-war sitting president. Meanwhile, the Republican party is set for a bitter fight, as Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis tries to prise the Grand Old Party from Donald Trump’s grip. Whatever the outcome, the rancour aroused in these contests is set to test American democracy once more.

The Biden presidency has so far been a welcome reprieve of relative comity during an era of steadily fraying democracy. Legislators have not exactly joined hands across the aisles, but the heckling has mellowed somewhat.

The two major parties are playing chicken with US sovereign debt, one of the cornerstones of the global economy. But it’s some consolation that they are doing so without a backdrop of violence. That, in some way, feels like progress.

At the community level, the divides are not quite as obvious as during the late-Trump era in 2020, when every public gathering was visibly split between those who would wear masks and those who steadfastly refused to do so.

There’s still a deep level of mutual suspicion between party loyalists. Republicans still scoff at Democrats’ talk of transphobia and critical race theory, while Democrats continue to pillory Republicans’ conspiracy theories about stolen elections.

DeSantis is the Republican candidate with momentum, styling himself as the chief crusader against the so-called “woke brigade”.

He is viewed by most Republicans, independents and even many Democrats as the acceptable face of Trumpism. He has channelled some of the brash provocation that he once admired in Trump, while avoiding the more erratic tendencies. It would be hard to imagine, for example, the polished former lawyer recommending that voters inject bleach into their bodies to fight the coronavirus.

In Florida, DeSantis has delighted right-wingers by using the power of the purse to punish Walt Disney and universities for their policies on equity and inclusion.

Despite publicity stunts such as bussing refugees to the residences of political opponents, his fame cannot compare with Trump’s.

That’s both a plus and a minus for his prospects. DeSantis’ approval ratings are about the same as Trump’s – at around 44 per cent – but the percentage of people who actively loathe him is much smaller. The problem, for DeSantis and the well-being of US democracy, is the ardent, extremist nature of Trump’s support.

At a speech effectively launching his primary campaign at a conference in Maryland last weekend, Trump tried to fire up this already fiery base.

“I am your retribution,” he said, sounding like a man with a personal rather than a political agenda. Disturbingly, he vowed to run even if he was indicted – a violation of election law – boasting that such a move would probably “help (his) numbers”.

This is not an idle threat. It’s hard to keep track of all his legal jeopardy. He could be indicted in New York for business shenanigans, or in Georgia for election meddling, or, in the most troubling case, for his role in the January 2021 storming of the US Capitol.

The Republican establishment, recognising that Trump has shrunk the party’s appeal, would welcome the chance to push him out of the race, and clear the path for DeSantis.

Even if he drops out of the official primaries, Trump sounds prepared to run a renegade campaign and embrace his association with the attempted coups. Like a wounded predator, he could be more dangerous to his party and his nation’s health in defeat.

His former United Nations delegate, Nikki Haley, also made the first major speech of her primary campaign in Maryland, but her poll numbers suggest she will play a cameo in the contest between Trump and DeSantis for the Republican nomination.

Like Trump, Biden faces pressure to drop out of the race. The 80-year-old has suffered recent stumbles, many of them literal. He has tripped over his words, and on several sets of steps, including twice on the stairs of Air Force One in the space of a week.

A February poll by the Associated Press showed that the majority of Democratic voters don’t want Biden to run again. The key decision maker in the Biden camp – First Lady Jill Biden – has already given the green light for another presidential bid, so it’s unlikely he will succumb to this pressure.

Self-help author Marianne Williamson became the first official challenger to Biden, throwing her hat in the ring at an event in Washington, DC. Political observers say her candidacy is unlikely to worry Biden, but the fact that her bid is drawing any attention at all is a bad sign for the incumbent.

On the outside chance that Biden decides not to contest, Vice-President Kamala Harris would be the obvious choice for the Democrats. Until very recently, she was strangely absent from the spotlight. She was allotted a task of undeniable gravitas, officially accusing Russia of war crimes on behalf of the US.

Her role on immigration has been much lower profile than expected. The Biden administration has perpetuated some of the exclusionary policies of its predecessor, trying to shake Republican taunts about growing numbers of asylum-seekers on the Mexican border, and there are plans afoot for mass deportations.

In polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has low approval ratings, seldom cracking 40 per cent. The same is true, however, of Biden – whose approval ratings are between 42 per cent and 45 per cent. The American contempt for politicians is growing stronger at the executive level. Nobody, it seems, is right for the job.

There could be an insurgent Democratic candidate. West Virginia senator Joe Manchin has built his own constituency as the bomb thrower on stimulus spending, almost single-handedly holding up ambitious plans such as the Green New Deal in the name of fiscal discipline. He has not ruled out a primary challenge to Biden.

When the candidates are finalised, perhaps the most likely outcome remains a rematch between Trump and Biden. If so, it’s likely to be even more bitter than 2020. 

 “This country is divided, and you’re not probably not going to get a clear signal of who the (next president) is going to be,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at foreign-exchange brokerage Oanda Group.

“Markets are pretty confident we’ll have divided government, so whoever is in place is not looking to have a major stranglehold on the fiscal agenda,” he said, adding that the “debt drama” is the main political risk for global markets.