When every vote counts, white women could make a difference

WITH fewer than 60 days until American voters elect their next president, the race between US Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump remains tight. This explains why the televised debate on Tuesday (Sep 10) evening (Wednesday, 9 am Singapore time) between the two candidates is so significant – the assumption is that the “winner” would be able to turn the race in her or his direction.

Less than two months after US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, the results of the polls have moved in favour of the Democratic presidential candidate, who seems to be leading her Republican rival nationally by two to three points, some pollsters indicated.

When it comes to the Electoral College, the two candidates are now fighting over seven battleground or “swing” states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Polls suggest that Harris enjoys a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump may have the advantage in Arizona and North Carolina. The two are tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada.

Challenges

Harris’ main goal would be to bring together the coalition of electoral groups that gave Biden the narrow margin of victory in 2020.

From that perspective, Harris is facing a major challenge. It is true that, since becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, she has been able to excite the party’s electoral base, including African-American and Hispanic voters, and especially younger ones.

Although a national poll by The New York Times and Siena College found Trump leading Harris marginally, Harris pulled ahead among Black voters with a 78 per cent vote share against Trump’s 14 per cent, as well as 55 per cent among Hispanic voters compared with Trump’s 41 per cent. She is also more popular among younger voters under age 44.

That may sound like good news for Harris, until one considers that Biden had won in 2020 by a wider margin among these groups.

Indeed, one of the intriguing results of the various polls is that Trump’s support among Black and Hispanic voters, despite tailing Harris, is at the highest level for a Republican presidential candidate since 1964. The former president does especially well among Black men.

That means Harris has to make additional gains among these groups in the next two months in order to overcome Trump’s sway in an election whose outcome could be determined by a few thousand voters.

There may also be a so-called “gender gap”. In a recent poll by Reuters and Ipsos, Harris led Trump with a 13-percentage-point margin among women voters and Hispanic voters, while Trump remains more popular among men and white voters.

It is worth recalling that Biden had also won a majority of women voters in 2020, but lost among white women to Trump who had won 52 per cent of these voters.

This year, Harris seems to be winning a resounding majority among Black women, but is trailing Trump by just two to three points among white women voters.

The Democrats believe that Harris would be able to widen the gender gap and carry the votes of white women by stressing the differences between the two parties over abortion and other issues.

Indeed, there are indications that, in addition to white suburban women, the vice-president is carrying the votes of white millennial and Gen Z women. In an election where every vote counts, that could make a huge difference.