Where the real returns on Singapore’s deep-tech investments lie

EVERY few years, Singapore asks a familiar question: Are we getting enough return from our investments in research and innovation?

It is a fair question. Taxpayers deserve to know whether decades of funding into science, startups and emerging technologies are creating lasting economic value.

Much of the debate focuses on visible outcomes – initial public offerings, unicorns, fundraising rounds and exits. These are important milestones, but they are also the final chapter of a much longer story.

The deeper question is not whether Singapore is producing successful companies – it is whether we are measuring success using the right scorecard.

Deep tech plays by different rules

One reason conventional metrics tell only part of the story is because deep tech operates on fundamentally different timelines.

For example, a software company may reach millions of users within a few years, but a quantum computing company may spend the same period validating a single technical breakthrough, while a fusion energy company may require decades before commercial deployment.

These deep-tech companies are not simply entering existing markets – they are creating entirely new ones. Their success depends not only on scientific breakthroughs, but also on talent, infrastructure, partnerships and supply chains.

While financial discipline remains essential, deep tech creates capabilities before it creates profits.

Vision has never been Singapore’s problem – endurance is

Decades ago, Singapore made early commitments to sectors such as semiconductors. We invested in biomedical sciences, building research capabilities and attracting leading pharmaceutical companies. We also embraced advanced manufacturing early.

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None of these industries became globally significant within a single funding cycle. Their success was built through decades of sustained investment, talent development and ecosystem building.

Today’s emerging technologies will demand the same patience. The challenge is not simply identifying the next promising technology – it is maintaining conviction through long periods when commercial outcomes remain uncertain.

I experienced this first-hand. I studied semiconductor engineering because I believed semiconductors would shape the future. Yet by the time I graduated, opportunities in the industry had largely disappeared. Like many of my peers, I pursued a different path.

Today, the conversation has completely reversed. Semiconductor talent is once again in short supply – not only in Singapore, but globally.

Technology cycles are inevitable, but capability gaps do not have to be. If we allow talent pipelines, research ecosystems and industrial know-how to erode during quieter periods, rebuilding them later is far harder than sustaining them in the first place.

If building strategic industries is a marathon rather than a sprint, our definition of success cannot be confined to short-term commercial milestones. We need a scorecard that measures not just what companies become, but also what Singapore becomes in the process.

Endurance means investing through uncertainty

As a small nation, Singapore has never competed by being the biggest market. Our advantage has been our willingness to invest before opportunities become obvious.

By the time an emerging technology becomes commercially inevitable, standards have already been established, supply chains have formed, talent has clustered elsewhere and market leaders have begun consolidating their positions.

The opportunity to shape an industry is often greatest precisely when uncertainty is highest.

Singapore’s early bets in quantum technology illustrate this well. Two decades ago, commercial quantum computing appeared speculative. Nevertheless, Singapore backed institutions such as the Centre for Quantum Technologies because there was conviction that quantum would eventually become strategically important.

Those early investments enabled research to translate into globally competitive companies such as Horizon Quantum – a home-grown company that SGInnovate has backed since its early stages.

Today, the company is listed on Nasdaq, but perhaps more importantly, it continues to build quantum computing capabilities in Singapore – creating high-skilled jobs, advancing quantum software and anchoring deep-tech expertise here.

Whether every individual company succeeds is almost beside the point. The more enduring outcome is that Singapore now possesses scientific expertise, entrepreneurial talent and industrial capabilities that position us to participate meaningfully as the global quantum industry develops.

Looking beyond today’s frontiers

Every generation dismisses certain technologies as too early, too ambitious or too speculative – until they aren’t.

Today, I find myself increasingly drawn to novel areas such as brain-computer interfaces and epigenetic programming – which opens new possibilities for medicine.

In-situ resource utilisation is also another area of interest as it could underpin future space industries by enabling the extraction and use of resources on other celestial bodies than Earth.

Each of these areas raises difficult technical questions and enormous scientific uncertainty, yet they also share familiar characteristics. They have the potential to become foundational technologies rather than incremental innovations.

The real return on deep-tech investment

Investments in these nascent fields may take many years to mature commercially, and some technologies will inevitably fall short of expectations.

Yet even then, the capabilities built along the journey – technical expertise, partnerships, talent and industrial know-how – will continue to strengthen Singapore’s position in these sectors, and/or its adjacent sectors.

No doubt, financial returns will always matter. Successful companies, IPOs and investment exits remain important indicators of a healthy innovation ecosystem, but they should not be the only measures.

The real return on deep-tech investment is the scientific capability we develop, the talent we cultivate, the industries we seed and the strategic relevance we create for Singapore.

Ultimately, deep-tech investing is not about predicting which technologies will succeed; it is about ensuring Singapore is prepared for whichever technologies do.

The countries that lead the next technological era will not necessarily be those that made the best predictions – they will be the ones that built the greatest capacity to respond.

The writer is executive director, investments, at SGInnovate