Who’s afraid of the big bad rate pause?
Monetary policy communication will be a challenge in 2023 and central bankers may struggle to convey good news when it comes.
WHO is afraid of the coming halt to interest rate hikes? Far from breathing a sigh of relief, central bankers will struggle to convey that this is a good thing. They may almost not believe it themselves. As Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo puts it, this is a time of sleepless nights.
Monetary chiefs will be at pains to stress the tussle against inflation isn’t over and there is more work to do – even as their next steps are likely to be smaller increases and then pauses.
But the issue isn’t whether the battle is won; few people are ready to declare peace. It’s that the bulk of the work is now done. If only they could bring themselves to say so.
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