Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Navigating rate hikes and oil shocks

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on 16 September and flagged more hikes to come, as it tries to tame inflation pushed higher by prolonged energy price pressure out of the Middle East. For anyone holding a traditional balanced portfolio, the question is whether the old 60/40 playbook still makes sense in a regime that looks nothing like the past two decades.

In this episode of Money Hacks, a podcast by The Business Times, Howie Lim speaks with Stephanie Leung, CIO of StashAway, and Angus Hui, deputy CIO at Fullerton Fund Management, about what persistently high rates and oil-driven inflation actually mean for everyday portfolios and retirement planning.

Why listen

• Why bond yields rising is not a temporary blip but a structural normalisation  Leung explains how the term premium, compressed near zero since the financial crisis, is simply returning to its historical average of around 1 per cent, and why US fiscal deficits make that shift durable.

• Why gold deserves a place in a modern balanced portfolio  With US debt to GDP projected to climb toward 120 per cent, Leung makes the case for gold as an alternative to bonds, one that has historically returned about 10 per cent a year while hedging against currency and inflation risk.

• Why hidden risks go beyond the oil price headline  Hui explains how energy shocks complicate central bank decisions, squeeze corporate margins unevenly, and expose weaker fiscal positions in countries like the UK and France relative to Singapore’s triple-A stability.

• Why timing the peak in yields is a losing game  Hui, with 24 years managing portfolios, is blunt about never having met anyone who called the top. He explains why a progressive, planned approach to reinvestment beats waiting for the perfect entry point.

• How to actually run a portfolio health check  From sizing your invested assets properly to identifying concentration risk, Hui offers a practical, repeatable framework investors can apply themselves.

The old rules are shifting and this conversation suggests what should replace them. Listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Stephanie Leung, CIO, StashAway and Angus Hui, deputy CIO, Fullerton Fund Management

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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