AI spending, oil and rate hikes: What is really steering markets

This week’s big tech earnings sent mixed signals on AI spending, with Alphabet falling while Microsoft was rewarded. Oil near US$115 is keeping inflation worries alive and central banks on edge. With Asian tech swinging sharply and private AI valuations heading for public markets, investors are asking what actually sets the direction.

In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times. Howie Lim speaks with Paul Chew, head of research at Phillip Securities Research, about how to separate real signals from noise.

Why listen

• Alphabet’s wobble is not just about spending  Chew says the weakness came from search advertising, not capital expenditure. He explains why free cash flow will look weak while data centres are being built, and why Amazon’s rare guidance reassures him.

• Memory prices over memory shares  Record memory prices and booked demand matter more in his view, than fears that earnings have peaked.

• A December rate hike  Chew calls another Federal Reserve hike almost inevitable, but doubts that higher rates cure an oil shock rooted in supply. He explains why smaller central banks face a harder trade-off between defending currencies and protecting growth.

• Oil and the Strait of Hormuz  Chew outlines what markets have priced in, and the scenario he says they have not: ground troops.

• The one indicator to watch  Chew’s pick is the revenue momentum of frontier AI model makers. He explains why a planned listing of Anthropic would give investors rare transparency into AI demand.

Chew’s advice is to take a view on how early AI adoption is, rather than trade the headlines. Listen now.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Geoff Howie, market strategist, SGX

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

Produced by: Howie Lim & Rachna Raghu

SEE ALSO

AI spending and higher-for-longer rates: What Asian investors should watch

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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