A fully live Fed, historic BOJ hike and Singapore’s stagflation problem

Markets had plenty to process this week. Tankers moved through a reopened Strait of Hormuz hours after a US-Iran peace deal was signed, sending a relief rally through equities even as the new Fed chair signalled a far less predictable path ahead. Add in Japan’s biggest rate hike in three decades, a Chinese economy pulling in two directions at once, and Singapore staring down its own stagflation question, and you have a week that resists easy summary.

In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, Howie Lim is joined by Pete Tan, portfolio manager at PhillipCapital, to make sense of it all and revisit a call Tan made back on episode 39, when he said the worst was over.

Why listen

• Why a “fully live” Fed chair makes markets harder to read, not easier  US Fed chair Kevin Warsh has stripped away forward guidance in favour of emphasising productivity. Tan explains why that shift could mean more volatility ahead, not less, and what investors should watch for instead of waiting for signals that may not come.

• Why Japan’s 31-year-high rate hike is a tightrope walk, not a victory lap  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trying to fight inflation and support the yen without spooking the bond market. Tan breaks down the sequencing risk that could turn a measured policy into one that looks like it is falling behind.

• Why Singapore’s combination of rising inflation and slowing growth makes an MAS easing move unlikely  Tan explains why the current backdrop raises the bar for any loosening, and what that means if you are watching mortgage rates closely.

• Whether SpaceX’s blockbuster debut tells us anything about broader market liquidity  Tan has a clear answer, and it is not the one most headlines are running with.

A geopolitical relief rally is colliding with some genuinely hard questions about energy, inflation and central bank credibility. Tan helps untangle which ones matter most. Listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Pete Tan, portfolio manager at PhillipCapital

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

SEE ALSO

Hawkish Fed, hot inflation, fragile currencies: ASEAN’s delicate balancing act explained

Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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