Hawkish Fed, hot inflation, fragile currencies: ASEAN’s delicate balancing act explained

A Middle East peace deal hope sent Asian markets rallying this week, oil fell to two-month lows and the dollar weakened. But beneath that relief sits a region still working through the consequences of months of energy shock, an inflation picture that looks very different depending on which country you are in, and a Fed that has gone from talking about rate cuts to talking about hikes in a remarkably short space of time.

In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, Howie Lim speaks with Yun Liu, senior ASEAN economist at HSBC, to make sense of a region at what she describes as a pivotal juncture, shaped simultaneously by geopolitical tension, supply chain restructuring and the early stages of an AI productivity story.

Why listen

• Why inflation in South-east Asia is such an uneven picture right now  The Philippines has overshot by 7 per cent and Vietnam by over 5 per cent, while Singapore and Malaysia remain comparatively resilient. Liu explains why energy dependence is drawing such a sharp line between economies.

• Why Malaysia’s fuel subsidies have grown tenfold since the war began Fiscal support can shield consumers in the near term, but Liu is candid about why that approach has a shelf life and what painful choices may lie ahead.

• Whether the Singapore dollar’s safe haven status is holding up under pressure  With the US dollar resurging, Liu explains why Singapore’s position is different from other emerging markets and what HSBC’s own forecast actually suggests.

• Why the AI story is providing an unexpected floor for parts of ASEAN’s trade  Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and even Vietnam are benefiting in different ways. Liu explains who is positioned to keep capturing that upside.

A region under pressure, but not without its own sources of resilience. This conversation maps out both. Listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Yun Liu, senior ASEAN economist, HSBC

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

SEE ALSO

Peace hopes, profit-taking and a Bitcoin plunge: making sense of a rollercoaster week

Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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