Up to 11 new condo projects with 3,550 units lined up for H2 launch as price ceilings emerge

[SINGAPORE] Some 3,550 new private homes could come to market in the second half of 2026, starting with four projects totalling 1,679 units slated for July, testing buyer appetite after a strong start to the year.

The next wave of launches is expected to push price benchmarks higher, but analysts said that buyers are starting to show clearer affordability thresholds across sub-markets.

The unit tally of new launches lined up for H2 stands at roughly the same level as that in the first half.

In the year so far, developers have launched seven private residential projects, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), totalling 3,534 units, noted Huttons Asia chief executive Mark Yip. Of these, 2,810 units have been sold, translating to an average take-up of 79.5 per cent. 

Standouts include River Modern with 93 per cent of its 455 units sold at a median price of S$3,229 per square foot (psf), Pinery Residences in Tampines with 94 per cent of its 588 units sold at a median price of S$2,548 psf, and the 863-unit Tengah Garden Residences with all but three units sold at a median price of S$2,113 psf. 

According to Huttons Asia’s Yip, July’s launches are likely to include the 230-unit Amberwood at Holland, the 380-unit Dunearn House, the 499-unit Lentor Gardens Residences and the 570-unit Lucerne Grand along Lakeside Drive.

Market watchers predict that prices for Amberwood at Holland could average between S$2,900 and S$3,000 psf, and those for Dunearn House could be around S$3,200 psf. Prices of Lucerne Grand are projected to average at S$2,600 psf, and that of Lentor Gardens Residences at S$2,300 psf. 

The third quarter is typically a short selling season for developers as it straddles the Hungry Ghost month, a four-week period when market activity dries up as superstition keeps homebuyers away. This year, festivities begin on Aug 13 and end on Sep 10.  

The market will end Q3 with one mega project on offer in September: the 1,240 unit Thomson Reserve coming up on the Thomson View condo en bloc sale site.  

Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, noted that overall prices have continued to rise gradually alongside income growth and public-housing resale prices.

In 2025, private-home prices rose 3.3 per cent, easing from a 3.9 per cent increase in 2024. This was also markedly slower than the 10.6 per cent spurt in 2021 which triggered market-cooling measures the following year. The measures were then stepped up in 2023.

Housing & Development Board resale flat prices, meanwhile, braked to a 2.9 per cent rise in 2025 after speeding up 9.7 per cent in 2024.

Clear limits becoming visible

With developers’ land acquisition and development costs markedly higher over the past two years, new launch prices are on the rise. But clearer price ceilings are starting to emerge for projects coming to market. 

This will make Thomson Reserve one to watch, as UOL and CapitaLand’s estimated land acquisition cost of S$1,178 psf per plot ratio (ppr) gives the developers ample room to price the project competitively while still preserving healthy margins. 

The massive project is located in the Rest of Central Region, where launches such as The Orie in Toa Payoh and Penrith in Queenstown hovered near the S$2,800 psf average when marketed in 2025.

In the Outside Central Region, new project pricing hit a high with Vela Bay, the first launch in the new Bayshore precinct, selling 72 per cent of its units at launch at a median price of S$2,865 psf in April this year.

Knight Frank head of research Leonard Tay expects most, if not all, future launches to be priced below S$3,000 psf in the rest of the year. 

Cheong noted that those with “less compelling attributes” are likely to range between S$2,100 psf and S$2,400 psf. 

PropNex CEO Kelvin Fong said that, in the Core Central Region, some launches could see average prices move beyond the S$3,300 to S$3,500 psf range, based on recent land tender trends.

Such price points are already common at the upper end of the market. Caveats data showed that 18 projects with new sales in the year to date had median prices above S$3,000 psf, including the recently launched River Modern at S$3,229 psf and Newport Residences at S$3,072 psf. 

Other projects that crossed the S$3,000 psf mark include those launched late last year, such as Promenade Peak at S$3,091 psf, Skye at Holland at S$3,299 psf, Zyon Grand at S$3,249 psf, and Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard at S$3,502 psf. 

But analysts do not expect average launch prices of projects even at the top end to breach the S$4,000 psf mark in the near term. 

“A further upward reset in psf pricing levels is likely to take time and would depend on a sustained improvement in underlying fundamentals,” said Cheong. “In particular, such a shift would require stable employment conditions and the absence of significant structural disruptions to the labour market due to artificial intelligence.”

Justin Quek, deputy group CEO of Realion Group, pointed out that higher construction and financing costs, along with new rules that have made layouts more efficient, have lifted the baseline cost of development. But for the broader market and city-fringe projects, developers still need to cater to genuine demand from local buyers and public-housing upgraders. 

Of the 11 projects expected to be launched in H2 of this year, Quek expects the 1,240-unit Thomson Reserve to be among the stronger performers, given its scale and “broad buyer appeal”.

Dunearn House is another one to watch, as the first condominium launch within the new Bukit Timah Turf City neighbourhood, he added. 

Cheong also cited the project’s relatively modest 380-unit count, proximity to an MRT station and “location within a micro-market that has seen limited new supply in recent years”. These factors should position it well to tap pent-up demand and potentially set new benchmark pricing for 99-year leasehold condos in the area, he noted. 

Quek pointed out that Lucerne Grand in the Jurong area should also benefit from pent-up demand for a mixed-use project directly linked to the Lakeside MRT station. 

Upcoming EC projects may draw “strong” interest

H2’s launch pipeline follows a brisk start to the year. 

Based on caveats lodged so far, Yip estimated that primary sales, excluding ECs, stood at 3,918 units as at May 25. Huttons expects to see about 4,500 new units sold in H1 2026.

Including ECs, Fong puts new sales for the year to date at around 5,200 units, or about 42 per cent of the 12,445 units sold in the whole of 2025.

Yip and Fong expect about 9,000 new sales, excluding ECs, for the full year.

The EC segment, however, could outperform the previous year if more projects are rolled out, including those in Senja Close, Woodlands Drive 17 and Sembawang Road, said Fong. Developers have yet to confirm the projects’ launch timelines. 

The upcoming EC projects are likely to draw strong interest, added Fong, since they will not be subject to the new measures announced in early May to curb prices, including a longer minimum occupation period and more priority for first-time buyers. 

Tricia Song, CBRE’s head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, is more conservative, maintaining her projection of 7,500 to 8,500 new home transactions in the year. This would mark a moderation from the strong sales of 10,815 units in 2025, and will come in slightly below the five-year average of 8,766 units from 2021 to 2025, she noted. 

Song added that private-home prices are still expected to “grow at a stable pace” of 2 to 4 per cent, having cumulatively risen 43.5 per cent from the pandemic trough in Q1 2020. 

“Government intervention is likely if prices jump ahead of economic fundamentals, or (are) driven by undesirable actors, such as hot money and foreign capital flows,” she said. “Right now, we are not seeing that. Prices are also in line with economic fundamentals.” 

But, Tay noted that homebuyer sentiment could change quickly if layoffs increase significantly.