‘No longer a rising tide’: Upcoming Q4 launches will test homebuying demand

[SINGAPORE] While recent fervent buying in Singapore’s residential market appears to have lost some steam after a dramatic rebound in 2025, industry players say demand has not fundamentally weakened but will be tested.

A quieter launch calendar resulted in lower new home sales so far this year, analysts said. Buyers are becoming more selective and price-sensitive as the market digests a long pipeline of new projects already launched over the last two years, with many scoring close-to-sellout sales.

“Developers are no longer selling into a rising tide in which every launch benefits equally. Every project now has to earn demand,” said ERA Singapore CEO Marcus Chu.

Coming up in the fourth quarter is a line-up of launches that will prove a litmus test for pricing and demand, analysts said.

CapitaLand Development (CLD) Singapore managing director for investment and development in Singapore Chew Peet Mun said the market had normalised after a strong period of activity.

“With more new developments coming to market, homebuyers today have more options to choose from. Rather than signalling a shift in demand, the current environment reflects a return to fundamentals,” he added.

In October, CLD, UOL Group and SingLand plan to launch their 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve along Upper Thomson Road.

The project is among some 2,300 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), that PropNex estimates could be marketed over the remainder of 2026. These include Sim Lian’s 212-unit Amberwood at Holland which starts previews on Sep 11; the 570-unit Lucerne Grand at Lakeside Drive in Jurong from City Developments; and Far East Organization’s freehold 133-unit The Serra Residences in Novena.

With healthy take-up rates at recent launches and relatively low unsold inventory, Thomson Reserve and Lucerne Grand would be “litmus tests” of underlying buyer demand, said Wong Xian Yang, head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia at Cushman & Wakefield.

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Developers sold 4,885 new private homes, excluding ECs, in the first seven months of 2026, down 11.6 per cent from 5,527 units in the year-ago period, PropNex Research indicated, citing data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

The number of units launched fell more sharply, declining 28.7 per cent to 4,516 units from 6,334 units over the same period.

PropNex CEO Kelvin Fong noted that developer sales outpaced launches by 8.2 per cent in the first seven months of 2026, compared with sales trailing launches by 12.7 per cent a year earlier.

Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, similarly observed that transaction volume was constrained mainly by fewer launches, and said the figures suggested that buyer demand had remained broadly steady.

Comparing periods with broadly similar launch volumes, Savills found a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.09 in the first four months of 2026, against 1.08 in the first three months of 2025.

On a January-to-July basis, Savills found that the sales-to-launch ratio rose to 1.08 this year, above the five-year average of 1.05 and the first reading above one since 2022.

But recent launches point to some slowing in take-up rates, Cheong said.

Projects launched in July recorded an average take-up rate of below 55 per cent, compared with 63.9 per cent for those launched in May. No new projects were launched in June.

While these rates remain “healthy by historical standards”, they were noticeably lower than the levels typically observed over the past few years, when new launches frequently achieved take-up rates of more than 70 per cent on their opening weekend, he added.

Cheong said buyers may be becoming more selective and price-sensitive amid higher property prices, economic uncertainty and a wider range of alternatives.

Two launches this year at roughly the same per-square-foot price point had sharply different outcomes. Tengah Garden Residences sold 99 per cent of its 863 units during its April launch at an average S$2,120 per square foot (psf), while the 540-unit Narra Residences moved 25 per cent at launch in January at S$2,180 psf.

Tricia Song, head of research, Singapore and South-east Asia at CBRE, said Tengah Garden Residences benefited from a relatively affordable entry price, its first-mover advantage as Tengah’s first private condominium, and direct access to an upcoming MRT station and retail component.

Song said Narra Residences’ more established Dairy Farm location and longer walk to the MRT offered less of a “transformation story”.

More broadly, she viewed the moderation as a “temporary pause”, as the buyer pool builds up for major launches in the pipeline.

Some buyers may also have shifted to the secondary market in search of better value amid fewer launches and higher new-home prices.

According to CBRE, resale transactions accounted for 62 per cent of total private home sales in the second quarter of 2026, up from 52 per cent in the third quarter of 2025.

A larger proportion of new homes are being priced at higher overall quantum prices, as selling prices move upwards with the rising cost of land.

SRI found that homes priced at S$2 million and above accounted for 61 per cent of new non-landed private home sales in the first seven months of 2026, up from 53.9 per cent a year earlier.

“Buyers may still be prepared to commit to higher purchase prices where a project offers compelling attributes such as location, connectivity, unit configuration or longer-term value,” said SRI head of research and data analytics Mohan Sandrasegeran.

ERA’s Chu identified S$2.5 million as an important psychological affordability threshold for new non-landed private homes.

Homes below that price accounted for between 41 per cent and 74 per cent of monthly sales from January to August, based on URA Realis data cited by ERA.

PropNex forecasts about 9,000 new private home sales for 2026, while ERA expects between 8,000 and 9,000 units. CBRE projects between 7,500 and 8,500 sales and price growth of 2 to 4 per cent for the full year, barring major shocks.

In 2025, developers sold 10,815 new units, a 67 per cent surge from the 6,469 units sold in 2024.