Upbeat outlook for CDL, UOL after strong H1 earnings, but analysts turn cautious on PropNex, Apac Realty

[SINGAPORE] Singapore’s biggest listed developers rode firm home sales to a strong finish at the end of their first-half season, and analysts stayed positive on  (CDL)  and ahead of anticipated catalysts.

But their views were less sanguine on property agencies and , whose respective project marketing incomes have already taken a hit from a smaller pipeline of new launches.

CDL’s net profit jumped 230.7 per cent to S$301.6 million for the six months ended Jun 30, while UOL’s net profit rose 23 per cent to S$252.2 million over the same period. Both have launched successful new residential projects in the last few years. 

Yet, while the pipeline remains well supplied in the near term, new home sales are tapering off slightly from 2025’s four-year high.

The fall-off is starting to be reflected in the revenues of real estate agencies PropNex and Apac Realty’s ERA: PropNex’s net profit fell 3.1 per cent to S$40.9 million in its the first half ended Jun 30, and Apac Realty’s by 16.8 per cent to S$9.4 million over the same period. 

CDL’s stellar H1 report card pleased the market, as did news that the group had completed a much-anticipated strategic review, the outcome of which is to be unveiled at end-September.

Its shares gained as much as 11 per cent on the morning of the release of its earnings.  

OCBC upgraded CDL, which opened at S$8.06 on Friday (Aug 21) and was trading at S$8.27 (as of 4.38 pm) to a “buy” from “hold”, but trimmed its fair value to S$10.35 from S$10.40.

Andy Wong, senior equity research analyst at OCBC, said that recent weakness in CDL’s share price had created value, and that investors are expected to track the outcome of its strategic review.

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Phillip Securities Research’s Darren Chan kept his “buy” rating and S$11.32 target price for CDL; CGS International (CGSI) maintained its “add” call and S$12.11 target.

DBS analyst Tabitha Foo also retained a “buy” rating with a S$12 target, and RHB Singapore’s Vijay Natarajan kept his “buy” call with an S$11.20 target. 

The positive calls came as CDL reported H1 revenue at 61.1 per cent higher to S$2.72 billion, driven by the full recognition of the completed and fully sold Lumina Grand executive condominium in Bukit Batok.  

CDL’s hotel business returned to a pre-tax profit of S$42 million, from a S$84.4 million loss the year before.

CDL doubled its interim dividend to S$0.06 a share, with net gearing at 75 per cent at end-June.

Phillip’s Chan said that CDL’s strategic review could provide re-rating potential from an “accelerated pace of asset recycling and deleveraging”.  The review could also enable the developer to expand its fund management business and “grow recurring income alongside its development exposure”. 

Group CEO Sherman Kwek has said that the review will set out the group’s future strategic direction, capital allocation framework and implementation road map.

Retaining broad analyst support

UOL also retained broad analyst support after the group posted a 23 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit to S$252.2 million in its first half. 

DBS’ Foo maintained her “buy” rating and S$13 target price, and CGSI analyst Raymond Yap kept his “add” call and S$12.83 target. OCBC’s Wong also maintained his “buy” rating and raised its fair value slightly to S$12.92 from S$12.87. 

The analysts highlighted UOL’s residential pipeline as a source of further earnings potential, and noted its continued strength in its property development and investment businesses.

CGSI highlighted UOL’s office and retail rental reversions, respectively at 7.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent in the first half, which the property developer expects will persist in the foreseeable future. 

CGSI is also watching UOL’s Marina Square redevelopment, which is expected to add 702 residential units to the group’s pipeline. UOL expects to receive written permission from the Urban Redevelopment Authority in the third quarter, and OCBC has already described the project as “one of the most anticipated developments”. 

UOL is also preparing to start marketing its mega Thomson Reserve project, a 1,268-unit condominium it is developing on a huge site it acquired in a collective sale with its subsidiary Singapore Land and joint venture partner CapitaLand Development. 

The fourth-quarter launch is expected to be followed by the debut of Dorset Gardens’ roughly 428 units in the first half of 2027 and a Hougang Central mixed-use development with more than 800 residential units in the second half of 2027.

DBS’ Foo also noted that the NoMad Hilton Singapore, scheduled to open along Orchard Road in late 2026, is expected to begin contributing to earnings in 2027.

Mixed outlook for agencies

Analysts were divided on PropNex after its first-half net profit fell 3.1 per cent year on year to S$40.9 million, even as its revenue edged up 0.7 per cent to S$603 million.

The agency’s decline in project marketing income was offset by stronger contributions from HDB resale, landed resale, leasing and commercial and industrial transactions.

PropNex’s market share by transaction volume also rose to 64.3 per cent in the first half, from 60.6 per cent in FY2025.

However, some analysts expect the softer project-launch pipeline to weigh on earnings in the second half. 

DBS’ Foo estimates that new-sale units available between April and September, expected to be recognised in H2 2026 results, would be less than half that of the year before. She also expects some projects, including the roughly 1,000-unit Chuan Grove and several executive condominiums, to be pushed into 2027. She maintained her “hold” call and S$1.95 target price.

Maybank Securities’ Eric Ong likewise maintained his “hold” on PropNex but lowered his target price to S$1.95 from S$2, despite raising his earnings estimates for 2026 to 2028 by 4 to 5 per cent on expectations of further market-share gains. 

FSMOne Singapore’s Charmaine Tan was more positive, maintaining her “buy” call and S$2.70 target price. 

She pointed to an estimated 48,000 HDB flats reaching their minimum occupation period between 2026 and 2028, calling this a “dual-commission tailwind” for PropNex. The removal of the 15-month wait-out rule for private property owners buying non-subsidised HDB resale flats could further support demand. Tan also expects higher land prices to translate into higher private-home launch prices and commissions per transaction in 2027, while the “back-loaded” launch calendar, with more higher-margin Core Central Region projects in the second half, could support commission margins.

The first-half net profit of Apac Realty, the parent of ERA Singapore, fell 16.8 per cent to S$9.4 million, and its revenue slid 3.6 per cent to S$329.3 million amid lower transaction volumes. 

Despite the weaker results, the group declared a first-half dividend of S$0.055 a share, comprising a S$0.019 interim dividend and a S$0.036 special dividend.

The special payout was Apac Realty’s first since 2021 and was a “positive surprise” to RHB. Natarajan maintained his “buy” rating and raised his target price to S$0.74 from S$0.71; Chan En Jie at Lim & Tan Securities kept to his “accumulate” call and raised his target to S$0.68 from S$0.66.

Both analysts expect Apac Realty’s second-half performance to remain broadly in line with that in the first half, although Chan expects its pipeline to strengthen in 2027 as delayed projects come to market.

He noted that new private-home sales are forecast to reach 8,000 to 9,000 units in 2026, excluding executive condominiums, down some 30 per cent from 10,800 units in 2025.